Detailed Information

Solar Activity

Solar activity over the past 24 hours was classified as eruptive. Twelve C-class flares were observed, with no M-class or X-class flares detected. The most significant event was a C4.9 flare from NOAA 14551, peaking at 15:55UT. Associated with this activity, no solar radio bursts were observed across Type II, Type III, or Type IV classifications. Five coronal mass ejections were detected, including one observed on the west limb with a speed of 276 km/s and an angular width of 12 degrees, and another on the east limb with a speed of 470 km/s and an angular width of 18 degrees.

On the visible disk, five active regions were identified by SDO/HMI: NOAA 14548, NOAA 14551, NOAA 14553, NOAA 14555, and NOAA 14557. Additionally, BBSO H-Alpha observations revealed three plages: NOAA 14554, NOAA 14556, and NOAA 14558. Furthermore, one active region is due to return from the farside between 16 October and 18 October. 

Based on predictions from the Random Forest model, solar activity for :
October 16th, 2026 04:00 UT - October 17th, 2026 03:59 UT is predicted to be eruptive.
October 17th, 2026 04:00 UT - October 18th, 2026 03:59 UT is predicted to be eruptive.
October 18th, 2026 04:00 UT - October 19th, 2026 03:59 UT is predicted to be eruptive.

Geomagnetic Activity

The geomagnetic activity was on active level for the last 24 hours.

The solar wind speed stable around 541 km/s, north-south component of interplanetary magnetic field fluctuate between -6.1 nT and 6.6 nT Corona hole at was not geoeffective. CME on 15 October 2026 04:36 UT was mainly errupted toward south-west with speed of 149 km/s and angular width of 82°. The CME was geoeffective and is likely to have not impact until next 3 days.

Active level geomagnetic activity is expected for the next 24 hours.
Quiet level geomagnetic activity is expected for 17 October 2026 07UT - 18 October 2026 07UT
Quiet level geomagnetic activity is expected for 18 October 2026 07UT - 19 October 2026 07UT

Ionospheric Activity

Ionosphere was in Quiet level for the last 24 hours.

There was no depression of foF2 lower than 30% of its median values.There was no increment of fmin more than 30% of its median values. The Spread-F occured for 240 minutes. The Sporadic E layer occured in the night and daytime for 795 minutes with foEs value exceeded the foF2 for 180 minutes. The S4 index values (condition of ionospheric scintillation) was on Severe (S4 > 0.8) level last 24 hours over Agam. The TEC values was on Quiet (VTEC < 125) level last 24 hours over Agam.

The ionosphere activity on October 16th, 04:00 UT - October 17th, 03:59 UT is predicted to be Quiet.
The ionosphere activity on October 17th, 04:00 UT - October 18th, 03:59 UT is predicted to be Quiet.
The ionosphere activity on October 18th, 04:00 UT - October 19th, 03:59 UT is predicted to be Quiet.

 

Navigation

For the last 24 hours, the error of the single frequency GPS positioning was on Medium level.

The probability of error positioning on October 16th, 04:00 UT - October 17th, 03:59 UT is predicted to be Normal, based on scintillation and TEC variations.
The probability of error positioning on October 17th, 04:00 UT - October 18th, 03:59 UT is predicted to be Normal, based on scintillation and TEC variations.
The probability of error positioning on October 18th, 04:00 UT - October 19th, 03:59 UT is predicted to be Normal, based on scintillation and TEC variations.
 

HF Radio Communication

The MUF(Maximum Usable Frequency) depression was in Quiet condition and the SWF (Short Wave Fadeout) was in Quiet for the last 24 hours.

The MUF depression on October 16th, 04:00 UT - October 17th, 03:59 UT is predicted to be Minor, based on prediction of geomagnetic activity.
The MUF depression on October 17th, 04:00 UT - October 18th, 03:59 UT is predicted to be Quiet, based on prediction of geomagnetic activity.
The MUF depression on October 18th, 04:00 UT - October 19th, 03:59 UT is predicted to be Quiet, based on prediction of geomagnetic activity.

The SWF on October 16th, 04:00 UT - October 17th, 03:59 UT is predicted to be Quiet, based on prediction of Solar activity.
The SWF on October 17th, 04:00 UT - October 18th, 03:59 UT is predicted to be Quiet, based on prediction of Solar activity.
The SWF on October 18th, 04:00 UT - October 19th, 03:59 UT is predicted to be Quiet, based on prediction of Solar activity.

Satellites

The electron flux was on low level for the last 24 hours.

Low level of electron flux is expected for the next 24 hours.
Low level of electron flux is expected for 17 October 2026 07UT - 18 October 2026 07UT
Low level of electron flux is expected for 18 October 2026 07UT - 19 October 2026 07UT

The 10 MeV proton flux remained quiet over the past 24 hours. Based on the observed conditions from the preceding 24 hours, the flux of high energy proton for :
October 16th, 2026 04:00 UT - October 17th, 2026 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.
October 17th, 2026 04:00 UT - October 18th, 2026 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.
October 18th, 2026 04:00 UT - October 19th, 2026 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.