
Center for Space Research
The National Research and Innovation Agency
BRIN - Indonesia
Issued : 2026 August 28 0800 UTC
Forecast Valid For 24 Hours
Solar activity over the past 24 hours was eruptive.
Three C-class solar flares were observed. The most significant event was a C1.2 flare originating from NOAA 14513, peaking at 5:53 UT. One type III solar radio burst was detected. Meanwhile, no coronal mass ejections were observed during this period. On the visible disk, SDO/HMI instruments detected five active regions: NOAA 14513, NOAA 14515, NOAA 14517, NOAA 14518, and NOAA 14519. There were no BBSO H-alpha plages reported. Looking beyond the visible limb, two regions are expected to appear from the farside between August 28 and August 30.
For the next 24 hours,
Solar activity for 28 August 2026, 04:00 UT - 29 August 2026, 03:59 UT is predicted to be eruptive.
Solar activity for 29 August 2026, 04:00 UT - 30 August 2026, 03:59 UT is predicted to be eruptive.
Solar activity for 30 August 2026, 04:00 UT - 31 August 2026, 03:59 UT is predicted to be eruptive
The geomagnetic activity was on quiet level for the last 24 hours.
The solar wind speed decrease from 317 km/s to 267 km/s, north-south component of interplanetary magnetic field increase from -2.6 nT to 2.1 nT Coronal holes at south-west and north-west were not geoeffective. There was geoeffective coronal hole at southwestern. The CME on 28 Agustus 2026 00:12 UT was mainly errupted toward northeastern with speed of 674 km/s and angular width of 28°. The CME was not geoeffective and have not impact until next 3 days.
Quiet level geomagnetic activity is expected for the next 24 hours.
Active level geomagnetic activity is expected for 29 August 2026 04UT - 30 August 2026 04UT.
Active level geomagnetic activity is expected for 30 August 2026 04UT - 31 August 2026 04UT.
Ionosfer was in Quiet condition for the last 24 hours.
There was no a depression of foF2 lower than 30% of its median value. There was an increment of fmin more than 30% of its median values for 15 minutes. There was a Spread-F layer for 195 minutes. The Sporadic-E occurred for 945 minutes in the night and daytime with foEs value exceeding the foF2 value. The S4 index values (condition of ionospheric scintillation) was less than 0.5 (quiet) and maximum TEC was 65.94 (quiet).
The ionosphere activity on August 28th, 04:00 UT - August 29th, 03:59 UT is predicted to be Quiet.
The ionosphere activity on August 29th, 04:00 UT - August 30th, 03:59 UT is predicted to be Quiet.
The ionosphere activity on August 30th, 04:00 UT - August 31st, 03:59 UT is predicted to be Quiet.
Based on TEC and scintilation, the error of the single frequency GPS positioning for the last 24 hours was in normal level.
Based on ionospheric scintillation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning on August 28th, 04:00 UT - August 29th, 03:59 UT is predicted at a normal level.
Based on ionospheric scintillation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning on August 29th, 04:00 UT - August 30th, 03:59 UT is predicted at a normal level.
Based on ionospheric scintillation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning on August 30th, 04:00 UT - August 31st, 03:59 UT is predicted at a normal level.
MUF depression was in quiet condition and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) was in quiet level for the last 24 hours.
The MUF depression on August 28th, 04:00 UT - August 29th, 03:59 UTT is predicted on a quiet level, based on the LAPAN Time Series method.
The MUF depression on August 29th, 04:00 UT - August 30th, 03:59 UT is predicted on a quiet level, due to previous geomagnetic activity.
The MUF depression on August 30th, 04:00 UT - August 31st, 03:59 UT is predicted on a quiet level, due to previous geomagnetic activity.
The SWF on August 28th, 04:00 UT - August 29th, 03:59 UT is predicted at a quiet level due to the prediction of solar flare.
The SWF on August 29th, 04:00 UT - August 30th, 03:59 UT is predicted at a quiet level due to the prediction of solar flare.
The SWF on August 30th, 04:00 UT - August 31st, 03:59 UT is predicted at a quiet level due to the prediction of solar flare.
The electron flux was on high level for the last 24 hours.
High level of electron flux is expected for the next 24 hours.
Low level of electron flux is expected for 29 August 2026 04UT - 30 August 2026 04UT.
Low level of electron flux is expected for 30 August 2026 04UT - 31 August 2026 04UT.
The 10 MeV proton flux remained quiet over the past 24 hours.
Based on today's conditions,
The flux of high-energy protons for 28 August 2026, 04:00 UT - 29 August 2026, 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.
The flux of high-energy protons for 29 August 2026, 04:00 UT - 30 August 2026, 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.
The flux of high-energy protons for 30 August 2026, 04:00 UT - 31 August 2026, 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.