
Center for Space Research
The National Research and Innovation Agency
BRIN - Indonesia
Issued : 2026 July 17 0800 UTC
Forecast Valid For 24 Hours
Solar activity was eruptive over the past 24 hours .
There was 2 C-class flare observed, with the most significant event was C5.2 at 21:35 UT from NOAA 4491 with no solar radio bursts reported. Five coronal mass ejections were detected, with a western event showing a speed of 681 kilometers per second and a width of 10 degrees, while an eastern event had a speed of 299 kilometers per second and a width of 18 degrees. On the visible disk, four active regions were identified by SDO/HMI: NOAA 14482, NOAA 14489, NOAA 14490, and NOAA 14491. Additionally, two H-Alpha plages were observed: NOAA 14487 and NOAA 14488. According to farside data, three regions are due to return between 17 July and 19 July.
Based on today's condition,
Solar activity for July 17th, 2026 04:00 UT - July 18th, 2026 03:59 UT is predicted to be eruptive.
Solar activity for July 18th, 2026 04:00 UT - July 19th, 2026 03:59 UT is predicted to be eruptive.
Solar activity for July 19th, 2026 04:00 UT - July 20th, 2026 03:59 UT is predicted to be eruptive.
The geomagnetic activity was on quiet level for the last 24 hours.
The solar wind speed stable around 464 km/s, north-south component of interplanetary magnetic field fluctuate between -8.1 nT and 5.9 nT. There was geoeffective coronal hole at central equator, while the others at south pole, eastern equator, north pole and north-east were not geoeffective. CME on 16 July 2026 11:48 UT was mainly errupted toward south-west with speed of 681 km/s and angular width of 10°. The CME was geoeffective and is likely to have no impact for the next 3 days.
Quiet level geomagnetic activity is expected for the next 24 hours.
Quiet level geomagnetic activity is expected for 18 July 2026 04UT - 19 July 2026 04UT.
Quiet level geomagnetic activity is expected for 19 July 2026 04UT - 20 July 2026 04UT.
Ionosphere activity was not evaluated due to no data for the last 24 hours.
The S4 index value (condition of ionospheric scintillation) was less than 0.5 (quiet) for the last 24 hours over Pontianak. TheTEC index was less than 120 (quiet) for the last 24 hours.
The ionosphere activity for the next 24 hours is predicted to be quiet.
The ionosphere activity for 18 Juli 2026 04:00 UT - 19 Juli 2026 03.59 UT is predicted to be quiet.
The ionosphere activity for 19 Juli 2026 04:00 UT - 20 Juli 2026 03.59 UT is predicted to be quiet.
Based on TEC and scintillation, the error of the single-frequency GPS positioning for the last 24 hours was at a normal level.
Based on ionospheric scintillation and TEC variation,
the probability of error positioning for the next 24 hours is predicted at a normal level.
the probability of error positioning for 18 Juli 2026 04:00 UT - 19 Juli 2026 03.59UT is predicted at a normal level.
the probability of error positioning for 19 Juli 2026 04:00 UT - 20 Juli 2026 03.59UT is predicted at a normal level.
MUF depression and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) were not evaluated due to no data for the last 24 hours.
The MUF depression for the next 24 hours is predicted on a quiet level, due to previous geomagnetic activity.
The MUF depression for 18 Juli 2026 04:00 UT - 19 Juli 2026 03.59UT is predicted on a quiet level, due to previous geomagnetic activity.
The MUF depression for 19 Juli 2026 04:00 UT - 20 Juli 2026 03.59UT is predicted on a quiet level, due to previous geomagnetic activity.
The SWF for the next 24 hours is predicted at a quiet level due to the prediction of a solar flare.
The SWF for 18 Juli 2026 04:00 UT - 19 Juli 2026 03.59UT is predicted at a quiet level due to the prediction of a solar flare.
The SWF for 19 Juli 2026 04:00 UT - 20 Juli 2026 03.59UT is predicted at a quiet level due to the prediction of a solar flare.
The electron flux was on high level for the last 24 hours.
High level of electron flux is expected for the next 24 hours.
High level of electron flux is expected for 18 July 2026 04UT - 19 July 2026 04UT.
High level of electron flux is expected for 19 July 2026 04UT - 20 July 2026 04UT.
The 10 MeV proton flux was quiet over the past 24 hours.
Based on current conditions,
The proton flux is expected to be quiet for July 17th, 2026 04:00 UT - July 18th, 2026 03:59 UT.
The proton flux is expected to be quiet for July 18th, 2026 04:00 UT - July 19th, 2026 03:59 UT.
The proton flux is expected to be quiet for July 19th, 2026 04:00 UT - July 20th, 2026 03:59 UT.