SPACE WEATHER INFORMATION AND FORECAST SERVICES

Center for Space Research
The National Research and Innovation Agency
BRIN - Indonesia

2026 Mar 16

Geomagnet

Active

Ionosphere

Quiet

Forecast

Geomagnet

Quiet

Ionosphere

Minor

Issued : 2026 March 16 0800 UTC
Forecast Valid For 24 Hours

ESSENTIAL INFORMATION FOR SPACE WEATHER COMMUNITIES

HF Radio Communication

MUF Depression

Shortwave Fadeout / Radio Blackout

NAVIGATION

Error Positioning

SATELLITES

High Energy Proton

High Energy Electron

Detailed Information

Solar Activity

Solar activity for March 13th, 2026, 04:00 UT - March 14th, 2026, 03:59 UT was active.
Solar activity for March 14th, 2026, 04:00 UT - March 15th, 2026, 03:59 UT was eruptive.
Solar activity for March 15th, 2026, 04:00 UT - March 16th, 2026, 03:59 UT was active.
 
In the last 24 hours, there were two solar flares, consisting of one C-class flare and one M-class flare. No X-class flares were observed. The strongest event was an M1.0 flare from NOAA 14392, which peaked at 9:39 UT. Associated with this flare activity, no solar radio bursts were observed. Additionally, five coronal mass ejections were detected. There was no westward-directed CME; meanwhile, one eastward-directed CME was observed with a speed of 1051 kilometers per second and an angular width of 6 degrees. On the visible disk, six active regions were identified by SDO/HMI: NOAA 14391, NOAA 14392, NOAA 14393, NOAA 14394, NOAA 14395, and NOAA 14396. Furthermore, three H-alpha plages were noted by BBSO, identified as NOAA 14387, NOAA 14389, and NOAA 14390. Regarding the farside, no regions are currently returning to the visible disk, although regions are described as due to return between 16 March and 18 March. 

Solar activity is predicted to be eruptive for the next 24 hours, based on the maximum predicted C-class flare by the Random Forest model.

Geomagnetic Activity

The geomagnetic activity was at minor storm level on 13 March 2026 04UT - 14 March 2026 04UT.
The geomagnetic activity was at minor storm level on 14 March 2026 04UT - 15 March 2026 04UT.
The geomagnetic activity was on active level for the last 24 hours.

The solar wind speed decrease from 756 km/s to 524 km/s, north-south component of interplanetary magnetic field fluctuate between -10.5 nT and 9.6 nT There were geoeffective coronal holes at south-east and western equator, while the others at south-east, eastern equator and south pole were not geoeffective.

Quiet level geomagnetic activity is expected for the next 24 hours.

 

 

 

Ionospheric Activity

The ionosphere was in quiet conditions on March 13th, 04:00 UT - March 14th, 03:59 UT.
The ionosphere was in quiet conditions on March 14th, 04:00 UT – March 15th, 03:59 UT.
The ionosphere was in quiet conditions on March 15th, 04:00 UT – March 16th, 03:59 UT.

There was no depression of foF2 lower than 30% of its median value in 13 - 16 March 2026. There was an increment of fmin of more than 30% of its median values for 75 minutes, 60 minutes, and 15 minutes. The Spread-F occurred for 90 minutes, 00 minutes, and 90 minutes in 13 – 16 March 2026. The Sporadic-E did occur in the night and daytime with foEs values exceeding the foF2 values for 1095, 1185, and 735 minutes. The S4 index values (condition of ionospheric scintillation) were S4 < 0.5 (quite) in 13 – 16 March 2026. The TEC was less than 120 TECU in the last three days. Both are observed over Pontianak.

The ionosphere activity in the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.

Navigation

Based on TEC, the error of the single-frequency GPS positioning on March 13th, 04:00 UT - March 14th, 03:59 UT was at a normal level. 
Based on TEC, the error of the single-frequency GPS positioning on March 14th, 04:00 UT – March 15th, 03:59 UT was at a normal level. 
Based on TEC, the error of the single-frequency GPS positioning on March 15th, 04:00 UT – March 16th, 03:59 UT was at a normal level.

Based on ionospheric scintillation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning in the next 24 hours is predicted at a normal level.

 

HF Radio Communication

MUF depression was in a quiet condition, and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) was at a moderate level on March 13th, 04:00 UT - March 14th, 03:59 UT.
MUF depression was in a quiet condition, and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) was at a moderate level on March 14th, 04:00 UT – March 15th, 03:59 UT.
MUF depression was in a quiet condition, and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) was at a quiet level on March 15th, 04:00 UT – March 16th, 03:59 UT.

The MUF depression in the next 24 hours is predicted on a minor level, due to the previous geomagnetic activity.
The SWF for the next 24 hours is predicted at a quiet level due to the prediction of the solar flare.

Satellites

The electron flux was at high level on 13 March 2026 04UT - 14 March 2026 04UT.
The electron flux was at low level on 14 March 2026 04UT - 15 March 2026 04UT.
The electron flux was on high level for the last 24 hours.

High level of electron flux is expected for the next 24 hours.

The flux of high-energy protons for March 13th, 2026, 04:00 UT - March 14th, 2026, 03:59 UT was quiet.
The flux of high-energy protons for March 14th, 2026, 04:00 UT - March 15th, 2026, 03:59 UT was quiet.
The flux of high-energy protons for March 15th, 2026, 04:00 UT - March 16th, 2026, 03:59 UT was quiet.

These quiet conditions are expected to continue for the next 24 hours.