Detailed Information

Solar Activity

olar activity was active in the last 24 hours. 

There were 5 flares with 4 C-class flares and 1 M-class flares in the last 24 hours. The maximum flare class was M1.6 from NOAA4341 peaked at 20:33UT. There was no solar radioburst occured in the last 24 hours. There was 2 CME event in the last 24 hours. The west-directed CME has the highest median velocity of 221 km/s with an angular width of 10 degrees and no east-directed CME are observed. The latest SDO/HMI Intensitygram data shows 4 active regions (NOAA4336,4340,4341,4342) and the latest BBSO H-Alpha data shows 3 H-Alpha plages (NOAA4334,4338,4339). Based on farside data shows no active region is going to appear from the east limb of the Solar disk in the next 24 hours.

Based on today's condition, solar activity for 
january 15th, 2026 04:00 UT - january 16th, 2026 03:59 UT is predicted to be active.
january 16th, 2026 04:00 UT - january 17th, 2026 03:59 UT is predicted to be eruptive.
january 17th, 2026 04:00 UT - january 18th, 2026 03:59 UT is predicted to be eruptive.
january 18th, 2026 04:00 UT - january 19th, 2026 03:59 UT is predicted to be eruptive.

Geomagnetic Activity

The geomagnetic activity was on quiet level for the last 24 hours.

The solar wind speed decrease from 708 km/s to 428 km/s, north-south component of interplanetary magnetic field fluctuate between -5.8 nT and 6.1 nT There were geoeffective coronal holes at north-west, south pole and western equator, while the others at eastern equator were not geoeffective.

Active level geomagnetic activity is expected for the next 24 hours.
Quiet level geomagnetic activity is expected for 16 January 2026 04UT - 17 January 2026 04UT
Quiet level geomagnetic activity is expected for 17 January 2026 04UT - 18 January 2026 04UT
Active level geomagnetic activity is expected for 18 January 2026 04UT - 19 January 2026 04UT

Ionospheric Activity

Ionosphere cannot be evaluated the last 24 hours

The ionospheric activity for the last 24 hours cannot be evaluated due to problems with the CADI station. The S4 index values (condition of ionospheric scintillation) were less than 0.5 in the last 24 hours so the scintillation was on quiet level, and the maximum TEC index value were at 59.13 in the last 24 hours, both measurement over Pontianak.

The ionosphere activity is predicted to be quiet for January 15th, 04:00 UT - January 16th, 03:59 UT
The ionosphere activity is predicted to be quiet for January 16th, 04:00 UT - January 17th, 03:59 UT 
The ionosphere activity is predicted to be quiet for January 17th, 04:00 UT - January 18th, 03:59 UT 
The ionosphere activity is predicted to be quiet for January 18th, 04:00 UT - January 19th, 03:59 UT 

Navigation

The error of the single frequency GPS positioning for the last 24 hours was on normal level, based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation.

Based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning for January 15th, 04:00 UT - January 16th, 03:59 UT is predicted to be on normal level.
Based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning for January 16th, 04:00 UT - January 17th, 03:59 UT is predicted to be on normal level.
Based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning for January 17th, 04:00 UT - January 18th, 03:59 UT is predicted to be on normal level.
Based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning for January 18th, 04:00 UT - January 19th, 03:59 UT is predicted to be on normal level.
 

HF Radio Communication

MUF depression and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) cannot be evaluated for the last 24 hours.

The MUF depression for January 15th, 04:00 UT - January 16th, 03:59 UT is predicted at a quiet level, due to previous geomagnetic activity.
The MUF depression for January 16th, 04:00 UT - January 17th, 03:59 UT is predicted at a quiet level, due to predicted geomagnetic activity.
The MUF depression for January 17th, 04:00 UT - January 18th, 03:59 UT is predicted at a quiet level, due to predicted geomagnetic activity.
The MUF depression for January 18th, 04:00 UT - January 19th, 03:59 UT is predicted at a quiet level, due to predicted geomagnetic activity.

The SWF for January 15th, 04:00 UT - January 16th, 03:59 UT is predicted at a minor level due to the prediction of a solar flare.
The SWF for January 16th, 04:00 UT - January 17th, 03:59 UT is predicted at a quiet level due to the prediction of a solar flare.
The SWF for January 17th, 04:00 UT - January 18th, 03:59 UT is predicted at a quiet level due to the prediction of a solar flare.
The SWF for January 18th, 04:00 UT - January 19th, 03:59 UT is predicted at a quiet level due to the prediction of a solar flare.

Satellites

The electron flux was on high level for the last 24 hours.

High level of electron flux is expected for the next 24 hours.
High level of electron flux is expected for 16 January 2026 04UT - 17 January 2026 04UT
High level of electron flux is expected for 17 January 2026 04UT - 18 January 2026 04UT
High level of electron flux is expected for 18 January 2026 04UT - 19 January 2026 04UT

The flux of high-energy protons was quiet for the last 24 hours.

Based on today's conditions, the flux of high-energy protons for 
january 15th, 2026 04:00 UT - january 16th, 2026 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.
january 16th, 2026 04:00 UT - january 17th, 2026 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.
january 17th, 2026 04:00 UT - january 18th, 2026 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.
january 18th, 2026 04:00 UT - january 19th, 2026 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.