
Center for Space Research
The National Research and Innovation Agency
BRIN - Indonesia
Issued : 2026 September 11 0800 UTC
Forecast Valid For 24 Hours
Solar activity in the past 24 hours was eruptive.
One C-class flare occurred in the past 24 hours. It was a C1.6 flare peak at 17:12 UT from NOAA 14524. There were six type III solar radio bursts and seven CMEs observed during this period. Among the east-directed CMEs, the event with the highest median velocity recorded 232 km/s with an angular width of 18°. Meanwhile, for the west-directed group, the highest median velocity reached 432 km/s with an angular width of 124°. The latest SDO/HMI intensitygram data show seven active regions (NOAA 14521, 14524, 14525, 14527, 14528, 14529, and 14530), while the latest BBSO H-alpha data show two H-alpha plages (NOAA 14523 and 14526) on the solar disk. Based on far-side data, no new active region is expected to appear on the solar limb in the next 72 hours.
Based on today's conditions,
The geomagnetic activity was on quiet level for the last 24 hours.
The solar wind speed is constant around 432 km/s, while the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -6.9 nT and 5.7 nT. There was one geoeffective coronal hole at the central equator, while the others at the southeast and eastern equator were not geoeffective. The CME on 10 September 2026 at 20:00 UT mainly erupted toward the northwest with the speed of 432 km/s and an angular width of 124°. The CME was geoeffective and is likely to have no impact until the next 3 days.
Ionosfer was in minor conditions on 24 hours.
There was depression in the foF2 from its median for 105 minutes in the last 24 hours. There was increment in fmin exceeding 30% of its median value for 15 minutes in the last 24 hours. There was no Spread-F event in the last 24 hours. Sporadic E-layer during the day and night for 990 minutes with foEs values higher than foF2 values in the last 24 hours. The ionospheric scintillation index (S4) above Pontianak, had a value below 0.5 at a quite level and the maximum TEC value was 64.13 both observed above Pontianak.
The ionosphere activity is predicted to be quiet for September 11th, 04:00 UT - September 12th, 03:59 UT
The ionosphere activity is predicted to be quiet for September 12th, 04:00 UT - September 13th, 03:59 UT
The ionosphere activity is predicted to be quiet for September 13th, 04:00 UT - September 14th, 03:59 UT
The error of the single frequency GPS positioning for the next 24 hours was on normal level, based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation.
Based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning for September 11th, 04:00 UT - September 12th, 03:59 UT is predicted to be on normal level.
Based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning for September 12th, 04:00 UT - September 13th, 03:59 UT is predicted to be on normal level.
Based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning for September 13th, 04:00 UT - September 14th, 03:59 UT is predicted to be on normal level.
In the last 24 hours, the Maximum Usable Frequency (MUF) Depression was at a moderate level, and the Short-Wave Fadeout (SWF) was at a quite level.
The MUF depression for September 11th, 04:00 UT - September 12th, 03:59 UT is predicted at a quite level, due to previous geomagnetic activity.
The MUF depression for September 12th, 04:00 UT - September 13th, 03:59 UT is predicted at a quite level, due to previous geomagnetic activity.
The MUF depression for September 13th, 04:00 UT - September 14th, 03:59 UT is predicted at a quite level, due to previous geomagnetic activity.
The SWF for September 11th, 04:00 UT - September 12th, 03:59 UT is predicted at a quite level due to the prediction of a solar flare.
The SWF for September 12th, 04:00 UT - September 13th, 03:59 UT is predicted at a quiet level due to the prediction of a solar flare.
The SWF for September 13th, 04:00 UT - September 14th, 03:59 UT is predicted at a quiet level due to the prediction of a solar flare.
The electron flux was at a high level for the last 24 hours.
The flux of high-energy protons in the past 24 hours was quiet.
Based on today's conditions,