
Center for Space Research
The National Research and Innovation Agency
BRIN - Indonesia
Issued : 2026 August 10 0800 UTC
Forecast Valid For 24 Hours
Solar activity for 7 July, 04:00 UT – 8 July, 03:59 UT was quiet.
Solar activity for 8 July, 04:00 UT – 9 July, 03:59 UT was quiet.
Solar activity for 9 July, 04:00 UT – 10 July, 03:59 UT was eruptive.
Solar activity over the past 24 hours was eruptive, characterized by five C-class flare. No M-class, or X-class flares were observed. The largest event was a C1.8 flare originating from NOAA 14505, which peaked at 16:40UT. Associated with this flare activity, no solar radio bursts were observed. Furthermore, no coronal mass ejections were detected during this period.
On the visible disk, three active regions were identified by SDO/HMI: NOAA 14503, NOAA 14504 and NOAA 14505. Meanwhile, no H-alpha plages were observed by BBSO. Looking beyond the visible limb, no region is due to return between 10 August and 12 August. For the next 24 hours, solar activity is predicted to remain quiet, with the Random Forest model predicting no flares.
The geomagnetic activity was at quiet level on 07 August 2026 04:00UT - 08 August 2026 03:59UT.
The geomagnetic activity was at minor storm level on 08 August 2026 04:00UT - 09 August 2026 03:59UT.
The geomagnetic activity was on active level for the last 24 hours.
The solar wind speed increase from 268 km/s and 406 km/s, north-south component of interplanetary magnetic field stable around -4.2 nT. There was geoeffective coronal hole at central equator, while the others at north pole, north-east and eastern equator were not geoeffective.
Quiet level geomagnetic activity is expected for the next 24 hours.
Ionosfer was in moderate conditions on 7 August 2026 04:00 UT - 8 August 2026 03:59 UT.
Ionosfer was in quiet conditions on 8 August 2026 04:00 UT - 9 August 2026 03:59 UT.
Ionosfer was in quiet conditions on 9 August 2026 04:00 UT - 10 August 2026 03:59 UT.
There was depression of foF2 lower than 30% of its median value for 195 minutes on 7 August 2026, 04:00 UT-8 August 2026, 03:59 UT and 15 minutes on 8 August 2026, 04:00 UT-9 August 2026, 03:59 UT. There was increment of fmin more than 30% of its median values for 45 minutes on 7 August 2026, 04:00 UT-8 August 2026, 03:59 UT. There was Spread-F layer for 150 minutes on the last 24 hours. There was Sporadic-E for 840 minutes in the night and daytime with foEs value exceeding the foF2 value for 1065 minutes, 1215 minutes, 750 minutes for the last 3 days. The S4 index values (condition of ionospheric scintillation) was on quiet level (S4<0.5) on 7 August 2026, 04:00 UT-10 August 2026, 03:59 UT over Pontianak. TEC index was on quiet level (VTEC<125) on 7 August 2026, 04:00 UT-10 August 2026, 03:59 UT over Pontianak.
The ionosphere activity on on the next 24 hours is predicted to be quiet level.
Based on TEC and scintilation, the error of the single-frequency GPS positioning for 7 August 2026, 04:00 UT-8 August 2026, 03:59 UT was in normal level.
Based on TEC and scintilation, the error of the single-frequency GPS positioning for 8 August 2026, 04:00 UT-9 August 2026, 03:59 UT was in normal level.
Based on TEC and scintilation, the error of the single-frequency GPS positioning for 9 August 2026, 04:00 UT-10 August 2026, 03:59 UT was in normal level.
Based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning in the next 24 hours is predicted in normal level.
MUF depression was in strong condition and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) was in moderate level on 7 August 2026 04:00 UT - 8 August 2026 03:59 UT.
MUF depression was in quiet condition and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) was in quiet level on 8 August 2026 04:00 UT - 9 August 2026 03:59 UT.
MUF depression was in quiet condition and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) was in quiet level on 9 August 2026 04:00 UT - 10 August 2026 03:59 UT.
The MUF depression on the next 24 hours is predicted in quiet level based on Geomagnetic activity.
The SWF for the next 24 hours is predicted in quiet level due to the prediction of the solar flare.
The electron flux was at low level on 07 August 2026 04:00UT - 08 August 2026 03:59UT.
The electron flux was at low level on 08 August 2026 04:00UT - 09 August 2026 03:59UT.
The electron flux was on low level for the last 24 hours.
Low level of electron flux is expected for the next 24 hours.
The flux of high-energy proton for 7 July, 04:00 UT – 8 July, 03:59 UT was quiet.
The flux of high-energy proton for 8 July, 04:00 UT – 9 July, 03:59 UT was quiet.
The flux of high-energy proton for 9 July, 04:00 UT – 10 July, 03:59 UT was quiet.
Based on current conditions, quiet proton flux levels are expected to continue for the next 24 hours.