Detailed Information

Solar Activity

Solar activity over the past 24 hours was eruptive. Three C-class flares were observed, with no M-class or X-class flares detected. The most significant event was a C1.0 flare from NOAA 14549, peaking at 19:16 UT. Associated with this activity, no Type II, Type III, or Type IV solar radio bursts were detected. Five coronal mass ejections were observed, with one from the west limb exhibiting a speed of 462 kilometers per second and an angular width of 18 degrees, and another from the east limb with a speed of 573 kilometers per second and an angular width of 24 degrees. On the visible disk, SDO/HMI instruments identified six active regions: NOAA 14548, NOAA 14549, NOAA 14551, NOAA 14553, NOAA 14554, and NOAA 14555. Additionally, BBSO H-Alpha data indicated two plages: NOAA 14545 and NOAA 14552. Looking beyond the visible disk, one farside region is expected to return between 13 October and 15 October. For the next 24 hours, solar activity is predicted to be active, with the Random Forest model forecasting a maximum flare class of M.

Geomagnetic Activity

The geomagnetic activity was on active level for the last 24 hours.
The solar wind speed stable around 559 km/s, north-south component of interplanetary magnetic field fluctuate between -1.5 nT and 11.4 nT. CME on 12 October 2026 19:36 UT was mainly errupted toward south-west with speed of 462 km/s and angular width of 18°. The CME was geoeffective and is likely to have not impact on next 24 hours.

Quiet level geomagnetic activity is expected for the next 24 hours.

Ionospheric Activity

 

Ionosphere was in Quiet level for the last 24 hours.

There was no depression of foF2 lower than 30% of its median values.There was increment of fmin more than 30% of its median values for 30 minutes. The Spread-F occured for 465 minutes. The Sporadic E layer occured in the night and daytime for 495 minutes with foEs value exceeded the foF2 for 60 minutes. The S4 index values (condition of ionospheric scintillation) was on Minor (S4 < 0.8) level last 24 hours over Agam. The TEC values was on Quiet (VTEC < 125) level last 24 hours over Agam.

 

The ionosphere activity for next 24 hours is predicted to be Quiet.

Navigation

Based on TEC and scintilation , the error of the single frequency GPS positioning for the last 24 hours was in Slight level.

Based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning in the next 24 hours is predicted at a Normal level.

HF Radio Communication

MUF depression was in Quiet condition and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) was in Minor for the last 24 hours.

The MUF depression for next 24 hours is predicted on Quiet level, due to previous of geomagnetic activity

The SWF on for next 24 hours is predicted in Quiet level due to the prediction of solar flare.

Satellites

The electron flux was on low level for the last 24 hours.

Low level of electron flux is expected for the next 24 hours.

The 10 MeV proton flux remained quiet over the past 24 hours. This quiet condition is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.