
Center for Space Research
The National Research and Innovation Agency
BRIN - Indonesia
Issued : 2025 December 25 0800 UTC
Forecast Valid For 24 Hours
Solar activity was eruptive in the last 24 hours.
There were 3 flares with all of them are C-class flares in the last 24 hours. The maximum flare class was C1.5 from NOAA4317 peaked at 9:56UT. There were 1 solar radioburst all of which are type-III occurred in the last 24 hours. There was 2 CME event in the last 24 hours. The west-directed CME has the highest median velocity of 328 km/s with an angular width of 34 degrees and no east-directed CME are observed. The latest SDO/HMI Intensitygram data shows 7 active regions (NOAA4312,4315,4316,4317,4318,4319,4320) and the latest BBSO H-Alpha data shows 3 H-Alpha plages (NOAA4311,4313,4314). Based on farside data shows 3 Regions Due to Return 24 Dec to 26 Dec from the east limb of the Solar disk.
Based on today's condition, solar activity for
December 24th, 2025 04:00 UT - December 25th, 2025 03:59 UT is predicted to be eruptive.
December 25th, 2025 04:00 UT - December 26th, 2025 03:59 UT is predicted to be eruptive.
December 26th, 2025 04:00 UT - December 27th, 2025 03:59 UT is predicted to be eruptive.
December 27th, 2025 04:00 UT - December 28th, 2025 03:59 UT is predicted to be eruptive.
The geomagnetic activity was on quiet level for the last 24 hours.
The solar wind speed stable around 726 km/s, north-south component of interplanetary magnetic field fluctuate between -6.7 nT and 5.6 nT Coronal hole elongated from west to south east solar limb was geoeffective. CME on 23 December 2025 20:00 UT was mainly errupted toward south-west with speed of 328 km/s and angular width of 34°. The CME was geoeffective and is likely to impact on the next 4 days.
Active level geomagnetic activity is expected for the next 24 hours.
Quiet level geomagnetic activity is expected for 25 December 2025 04UT - 26 December 2025 04UT
Quiet level geomagnetic activity is expected for 26 December 2025 04UT - 27 December 2025 04UT
Active level geomagnetic activity is expected for 27 December 2025 04UT - 28 December 2025 04UT
Ionosphere cannot be evaluated the last 24 hours
The ionospheric activity for the last 24 hours cannot be evaluated due to problems with the CADI station. The S4 index values (condition of ionospheric scintillation) were less than 0.5 so the scintillation was on quiet level, and the maximum TEC index value were at 68.09 in the last 24 hours, both measurement over Pontianak.
The ionosphere activity is predicted to be quiet for December 24th, 04:00 UT - December 25th, 03:59 UT
The ionosphere activity is predicted to be quiet for December 25th, 04:00 UT - December 26th, 03:59 UT
The ionosphere activity is predicted to be quiet for December 26th, 04:00 UT - December 27th, 03:59 UT
The ionosphere activity is predicted to be quiet for December 27th, 04:00 UT - December 28th, 03:59 UT
he error of the single frequency GPS positioning for the next 24 hours was on normal level, based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation.
Based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning for December 24th, 04:00 UT - December 25th, 03:59 UT is predicted to be on normal level.
Based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning for December 25th, 04:00 UT - December 26th, 03:59 UT is predicted to be on normal level.
Based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning for December 26th, 04:00 UT - December 27th, 03:59 UT is predicted to be on normal level.
Based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning for December 27th, 04:00 UT - December 28th, 03:59 UT is predicted to be on normal level.
MUF depression and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) cannot be evaluated for the last 24 hours.
The MUF depression for December 24th, 04:00 UT - December 25th, 03:59 UT is predicted at a quiet level, due to previous geomagnetic activity.
The MUF depression for December 25th, 04:00 UT - December 26th, 03:59 UT is predicted at a quiet level, due to predicted geomagnetic activity.
The MUF depression for December 26th, 04:00 UT - December 27th, 03:59 UT is predicted at a quiet level, due to predicted geomagnetic activity.
The MUF depression for December 27th, 04:00 UT - December 28th, 03:59 UT is predicted at a quiet level, due to predicted geomagnetic activity.
The SWF for December 24th, 04:00 UT - December 25th, 03:59 UT hours is predicted at a quiet level due to the prediction of a solar flare.
The SWF for December 25th, 04:00 UT - December 26th, 03:59 UT hours is predicted at a quiet level due to the prediction of a solar flare.
The SWF for December 26th, 04:00 UT - December 27th, 03:59 UT hours is predicted at a quiet level due to the prediction of a solar flare.
The SWF for December 27th, 04:00 UT - December 28th, 03:59 UT hours is predicted at a quiet level due to the prediction of a solar flare.
The electron flux was on high level for the last 24 hours.
High level of electron flux is expected for the next 24 hours.
High level of electron flux is expected for 25 December 2025 04UT - 26 December 2025 04UT
High level of electron flux is expected for 26 December 2025 04UT - 27 December 2025 04UT
Low level of electron flux is expected for 27 December 2025 04UT - 28 December 2025 04UT
The flux of high-energy protons was quiet for the last 24 hours.
Based on today's condition, , the flux of high energy proton for :
December 24th, 2025 04:00 UT - December 25th, 2025 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.
December 25th, 2025 04:00 UT - December 26th, 2025 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.
December 26th, 2025 04:00 UT - December 27th, 2025 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.
December 27th, 2025 04:00 UT - December 28th, 2025 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.