
Center for Space Research
The National Research and Innovation Agency
BRIN - Indonesia
Issued : 2026 February 18 0800 UTC
Forecast Valid For 24 Hours
Solar activity in the past 24 hours was eruptive.
Three C-class flares occurred in the past 24 hours. The strongest was a C1.8 flare, which peaked at 23:23 UT from active region NOAA 14374. Two type III solar radio bursts and five CMEs were observed during this period. The east-directed CMEs had the highest median velocity of 262 km/s and an angular width of 8°, while the west-directed CMEs had the highest median velocity of 697 km/s and an angular width of 24°. The latest SDO/HMI intensitygram data show four active regions (NOAA 14373, 14374, 14375, and 14377), while the latest BBSO H-alpha data show one H-alpha plage (NOAA 14376) on the solar disk. The GONG Calibrated Farside Map indicates that no new active regions are expected to appear on the solar limb in the next 24 hours.
Based on today's conditions, solar activity for the next 24 hours is predicted to be eruptive.
The geomagnetic activity was on quiet level for the last 24 hours.
The solar wind speed decreases from 719 km/s to 484 km/s, north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuates between -7.2 nT and 7.4 nT. There were geoeffective coronal holes at south pole and the western equator. CME on 17 February 2026 13:36 UT was mainly erupted toward the south-west with a speed of 494 km/s and an angular width of 26°. The CME was geoeffective and is likely to have no impact on the next 24 hours.
Quiet level geomagnetic activity is expected for the next 24 hours.
Ionosphere activity was not evaluated due to no data for the last 24 hours.
The S4 index value (condition of ionospheric scintillation) was medium (more than 0.8) for the last 24 hours over Pontianak. The TEC index was quiet (less than 125) for the last 24 hours.
The ionosphere activity is predicted to be quiet for the next 24 hours.
Based on TEC and scintillation, the error of the single-frequency GPS positioning for the last 24 hours was at a medium level.
Based on ionospheric scintillation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning for the next 24 hours is predicted at a medium level.
MUF depression and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) were not evaluated due to no data for the last 24 hours.
The MUF depression for the next 24 hours is predicted on a quiet level, due to previous geomagnetic activity.
The SWF for the next 24 hours is predicted at a quiet level due to the prediction of a solar flare.
The electron flux was on high level for the last 24 hours.
A high level of electron flux is expected for the next 24 hours.
The flux of high-energy protons in the past 24 hours was quiet.
Based on today's conditions, the flux of high-energy protons for the next 24 hours is predicted to be quiet.