Center for Space Research
The National Research and Innovation Agency
BRIN - Indonesia
Issued : 2025 October 21 0800 UTC
Forecast Valid For 24 Hours
Solar activity was Active in the last 24 hours.
There were 5 flares with 4 C-class flares and 1 M-class flares in the last 24 hours. The maximum flare class was M1.0 from NOAA4248 peaked at 5:27UT.
There were 5 solar radioburst all of which are type-III occurred in the last 24 hours.
There was 5 CME event in the last 24 hours. The east-directed CME has the highest median velocity of 1096 km/s with an angular width of 16 degrees and the west-directed CME has the highest median velocity of 381 km/s with an angular width of 100 degrees.
The latest SDO/HMI Intensitygram data shows 9 active regions (NOAA4248,4252,4254,4256,4257,4259,4260,4261,4262) and the latest BBSO H-Alpha data shows 3 H-Alpha plages (NOAA4251,4255,4258).
Based on farside data shows 2 Regions Due to Return 21 Oct to 23 Oct from the east limb of the Solar disk.
Based on today's condition, solar activity for the next 24 hours is predicted to be Active.
The geomagnetic activity was on quiet level for the last 24 hours.
The solar wind speed decrease from 645 km/s to 434 km/s, north-south component of interplanetary magnetic field stable around 3.1 nT. There was geoeffective coronal hole at north-west, while the others at north-east, south-east, eastern equator and north pole were not geoeffective. CME on 20 October 2025 15:48 UT was Halo II with speed of 381 km/s and angular width of 100°. The CME was geoeffective and is likely to have not impact on next 24 hours.
Quiet level geomagnetic activity is expected for the next 24 hours.
The ionosphere cannot be evaluated for the last 24 hours
The ionospheric activity for the last 24 hours cannot be evaluated due to problems with the CADI station. The S4 index values (condition of ionospheric scintillation) were more than 0.5 and less than 0.8, so the scintillation was at a moderate level, and the maximum TEC index value was at 97.77, both over Pontianak.
The ionosphere activity is predicted to be quiet level for the next 24 hours.
The error of the single-frequency GPS positioning for the last 24 hours was disturbed at a slight level, based on ionospheric scintillation and TEC variation.
Based on ionospheric scintillation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning for the next 24 hours is predicted to be disturbed at a slight level.
Maximum Usable Frequency (MUF) Depression and the Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) cannot be evaluated for the last 24 hours.
The MUF Depression for the next is predicted to be at Quiet levels based on past geomagnetic activity.
The SWF for the next 24 hours is forecasted at Minor based on predicted solar flare classes.
The electron flux was on low level for the last 24 hours.
Low level of electron flux is expected for the next 24 hours.
The flux of high-energy protons was quiet for the last 24 hours. Based on today's condition, the flux of high-energy protons is predicted to be in a quiet condition for the next 24 hours.