
Center for Space Research
The National Research and Innovation Agency
BRIN - Indonesia
Issued : 2025 December 16 0800 UTC
Forecast Valid For 24 Hours
Solar activity in the past 24 hours was eruptive.
Five C-class flares occurred in the past 24 hours. The strongest was a C3.9 flare, which peaked at 17:28 UT from NOAA 14304. One type III solar radio burst and one CME were recorded during this period. The CME was west-directed, with a median speed of 304 km/s and an angular width of 12°. The latest SDO/HMI Intensitygram data show five active regions (NOAA 14305, 14307, 14308, 14309, and 14310), while the latest BBSO H-alpha data show two H-alpha plages (NOAA 14303 and 14306) on the solar disk. The GONG Calibrated Farside Map indicates that one new active region is expected to appear on the solar limb within the next 24 hours.
Based on today's conditions, solar activity for the next 24 hours is predicted to be eruptive.
The geomagnetic activity was at a quiet level for the last 24 hours.
The solar wind speed increased from 443 km/s and 626 km/s. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field was stable around 1.3 nT. There were geoeffective coronal holes at the north pole, southeast and western equator.
Quiet level geomagnetic activity is expected for the next 24 hours.
The ionospheric activity for the last 24 hours cannot be evaluated due to the lack of data observation.
In the last 24 hours, the S4 index values (condition of ionospheric scintillation) were lower than 0.5, and the maximum TEC index value was at 65.71, both over Pontianak.
The ionosphere activity on the next 24 hours is predicted to be quiet.
Based on TEC variation and scintillation, the error of the single-frequency GPS positioning for the last 24 hours was at a normal level.
Based on ionospheric scintillation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning over the next 24 hours is predicted at a normal level.
The MUF depression and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) for the last 24 hours cannot be evaluated due to unavailable data observation.
The MUF depression over the next 24 hours is predicted at a quiet level due to the previous geomagnetic activity.
The SWF for the next 24 hours is predicted at a quiet level due to the prediction of the solar flare.
The electron flux was at a low level for the last 24 hours.
A low level of electron flux is expected for the next 24 hours.
The flux of high-energy protons in the past 24 hours was quiet.
Based on today's conditions, the flux of high-energy protons for the next 24 hours is predicted to be quiet.