Detailed Information

Solar Activity

Solar activity over the past 24 hours was eruptive, characterized by two C-class flares and no M-class or X-class flares. The most significant event was a C6.9 flare originating from NOAA 14549, peaking at 2:21UT. No solar radio bursts of Type II, Type III, or Type IV were observed in association with these events. Two coronal mass ejections were detected, with the westernmost event exhibiting a speed of 1329 kilometers per second and an angular width of 14 degrees.

On the visible disk, seven active regions were identified by SDO/HMI, including NOAA 14548, NOAA 14549, NOAA 14551, NOAA 14554, NOAA 14555, NOAA 14556, and NOAA 14557. Additionally, BBSO H-alpha observations revealed two plages, NOAA 14552 and NOAA 14553. Looking ahead, one active region is anticipated to emerge from the far side between October 14 and October 16. For the next 24 hours, solar activity is predicted to remain active, with the Random Forest model forecasting M-class flare activity.
 

Geomagnetic Activity

The geomagnetic activity was on quiet level for the last 24 hours.

The solar wind speed decrease from 676 km/s to 464 km/s. The north-south component of interplanetary magnetic field fluctuate between -8.7 nT and 12.1 nT. Corona holes at western and north-west were geoeffective, meanwhile at south-east and northern were not geoeffective. CME on 14 October 2026 23:00 UT  with speed of 317 km/s and angular width of 40°. The CME was not geoeffective and is likely to have not impact on next 24 hours.

Active level geomagnetic activity is expected for the next 24 hours.

Ionospheric Activity

Ionosphere was in Quiet level for the last 24 hours.

There was no depression of foF2 lower than 30% of its median values.There was increment of fmin more than 30% of its median values for 30 minutes. The Spread-F occured for 255 minutes. The Sporadic E layer occured in the night and daytime for 525 minutes with foEs value exceeded the foF2 for 30 minutes. The S4 index values (condition of ionospheric scintillation) was on Quiet (S4 < 0.5) level last 24 hours over Agam. The TEC values was on Quiet (VTEC < 125) level last 24 hours over Agam.

The ionosphere activity for the next 24 hours is predicted to be Quiet.

Navigation

For the last 24 hours, the error of the single frequency GPS positioning was on Normal level.

The probability of error positioning for the next 24 hours is predicted to be Normal, based on scintillation and TEC variations.
 

HF Radio Communication

The MUF(Maximum Usable Frequency) depression was in Quiet condition and the SWF (Short Wave Fadeout) was in Minor for the last 24 hours.

The MUF depression for the next 24 hours is predicted to be Quiet, based on prediction of geomagnetic activity.

The SWF for the next 24 hours is predicted to be Minor, based on prediction of Solar activity.
 

Satellites

The electron flux was on low level for the last 24 hours.
Low level of elektron flux is expected for the next 24 hours.

The 10 MeV proton flux remained quiet over the past 24 hours. 

These quiet conditions are expected to persist for the upcoming 24-hour period.