
Center for Space Research
The National Research and Innovation Agency
BRIN - Indonesia
Issued : 2026 November 02 0800 UTC
Forecast Valid For 24 Hours
Solar activity on 30 October 2026 04:00 UT - 31 October 2026 03:59 UT was Quiet.
Solar activity on 31 October 2026 04:00 UT - 01 November 2026 03:59 UT was Quiet.
Solar activity over the past 24 hours was Eruptive.
One C-class flare was observed. No M-class or X-class flares occurred. The strongest event was a C1.1 flare, peaking at 12:36 UT from NOAA 14564. No Type II, Type III, or Type IV radio bursts were reported. One coronal mass ejection was detected, propagating with a western component speed of 328 km/s and an angular width of 38 degrees. On the visible disk, two active regions were observed by SDO/HMI, identified as NOAA 14564 and NOAA 14565. Additionally, one H-Alpha plage was noted by BBSO, corresponding to NOAA 14562. One active region is due to return to the visible disk between 02 November and 04 November.
Looking ahead, solar activity is predicted to be Quiet for the next 24 hours, with the Random Forest model forecasting no-flare activity.
The geomagnetic activity was at active level on 30 October 2026 07UT - 31 October 2026 07UT.
The geomagnetic activity was at minor storm level on 31 October 2026 07UT - 01 November 2026 07UT.
The geomagnetic activity was on minor storm level for the last 24 hours.
The solar wind speed increase from 352 km/s and 725 km/s, north-south component of interplanetary magnetic field fluctuate between -11.4 nT and 7.8 nT Corona hole at was not geoeffective. CME on 01 November 2026 17:36 UT was mainly errupted toward west with speed of 328 km/s and angular width of 38°. The CME was geoeffective and is likely to have not impact on next 24 hours.
Active level geomagnetic activity is expected for the next 24 hours.
Ionosphere was in Quiet level on October 30th, 04:00 UT - October 31st, 03:59 UT.
Ionosphere was in disturbed on Minor level on October 31st, 04:00 UT - November 1st, 03:59 UT.
Ionosphere was in disturbed on Moderate level on November 1st, 04:00 UT - November 2nd, 03:59 UT.
There was depression of foF2 lower than 30% of its median values for 15 minutes, 75 minutes, and 180 minutes for 3 consecutive days.There was increment of fmin more than 30% of its median values for 120 minutes, 150 minutes, and 195 minutes for 3 consecutive days. The Spread-F occured for 435 minutes, 255 minutes, and 30 minutes for 3 consecutive days. The Sporadic E layer occured in the night and daytime for 465 minutes, 735 minutes, and 900 minutes on October 30th-31st, Oktober-1 31st, and November 1st-2nd with foEs value exceeded the foF2 for 30 minutes, 135 minutes, and 120 minutes for 3 consecutive days. The S4 index values (condition of ionospheric scintillation) was on Quiet (S4 < 0.5) for 3 consecutive days over Agam. The TEC values was on Quiet (VTEC < 125) for 3 consecutive days over Agam.
The ionosphere activity for the next 24 hours is predicted to be Quiet.
On October 30th, 04:00 UT - October 31st, 03:59 UT, the error of the single frequency GPS positioning was on Normal level.
On October 31st, 04:00 UT - November 1st, 03:59 UT, the error of the single frequency GPS positioning was on Normal level.
On November 1st, 04:00 UT - November 2nd, 03:59 UT, the error of the single frequency GPS positioning was on Normal level.
The probability of error positioning for the next 24 hours is predicted to be Normal, based on scintillation and TEC variations.
On October 30th, 04:00 UT - October 31st, 03:59 UT, The MUF(Maximum Usable Frequency) depression was in Quiet condition and the SWF (Short Wave Fadeout) was in Moderate.
On October 31st, 04:00 UT - November 1st, 03:59 UT, The MUF(Maximum Usable Frequency) depression was in Moderate condition and the SWF (Short Wave Fadeout) was in Strong.
On November 1st, 04:00 UT - November 2nd, 03:59 UT, The MUF(Maximum Usable Frequency) depression was in Strong condition and the SWF (Short Wave Fadeout) was in Strong.
The MUF depression for the next 24 hours is predicted to be Quiet, based on prediction of geomagnetic activity.
The SWF for the next 24 hours is predicted to be Quiet, based on prediction of Solar activity.
The electron flux was at high level on 30 October 2026 07UT - 31 October 2026 07UT.
The electron flux was at low level on 31 October 2026 07UT - 01 November 2026 07UT.
The electron flux was on high level for the last 24 hours.
High level of electron flux is expected for the next 24 hours.
The flux of high-energy protons on 30 October 2026 04:00 UT - 31 October 2026 03:59 UT was Quiet.
The flux of high-energy protons on 31 October 2026 04:00 UT - 01 November 2026 03:59 UT was Quiet.
The flux of high-energy protons remained Quiet over the past 24 hours.
These conditions are expected to continue, with a Quiet proton flux predicted for the next 24 hours.