Detailed Information

Solar Activity

Solar activity in the past 24 hours was eruptive.

Eight C-class solar flares were observed, wirh the most significant event was a C2.0 flare originating from NOAA 14436 peaking at 12:49 UT. Three Type III solar radio bursts and one CME were detected, propagating to the west with a speed of 718 km/s and an angular width of 10 degrees. On the visible disk, SDO/HMI imagery identified four active regions: NOAA 14432, NOAA 14433, NOAA 14435, and NOAA 14436. Additionally, one H-Alpha plage, NOAA 14434, was noted by BBSO. Farside data indicates one region is due to return between 13 May and 15 May. 

Based on today's conditions,
solar activity for 13 May, 04:00 UT–14 May, 03:59 UT is predicted to be major flare;
solar activity for 14 May, 04:00 UT–15 May, 03:59 UT is predicted to be eruptive;
solar activity for 15 May, 04:00 UT–16 May, 03:59 UT is predicted to be eruptive;
solar activity for 16 May, 04:00 UT–17 May, 03:59 UT is predicted to be eruptive.
 

Geomagnetic Activity

The geomagnetic activity was on quiet level for the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed decrease from 424 km/s to 346 km/s, north-south component of interplanetary magnetic field fluctuate between -6.3 nT and 6.8 nT. There was geoeffective coronal hole at south pole, while the others at eastern equator, north-east, south-east, south-west and south pole were not geoeffective. CME on 12 May 2026 15:00 UT was mainly errupted toward west with speed of 718 km/s and angular width of 10°. The CME was geoeffective and is likely to have impact on 17 May 2026.

Quiet level geomagnetic activity is expected for the next 24 hours.

Quiet level geomagnetic activity is expected for 14 May 2026 07UT - 15 May 2026 07UT.

Quiet level geomagnetic activity is expected for 15 May 2026 07UT - 16 May 2026 07UT.

Active level geomagnetic activity is expected for 16 May 2026 07UT - 17 May 2026 07UT.

Ionospheric Activity

Ionosphere was in moderate conditions for last 24 hours.

There was depression of foF2 lower than 30% of its median value for 165 minutes in the last 24 hours. There was  increment of fmin more than 30% of its median values for 60 minutes respectively for the last 24 hours. The Spread-F  not occurred for the last 24 hours. The Sporadic-E occurred in the night and daytime with foEs value exceeded the foF2 for several times for 795 minutes for the last 24 hours. The S4 index values was less than 0.5 (0.5<S4) and the maximum TEC index value was at 61.34, both over Pontianak for the last 24 hours.

The ionosphere activity on May 13th, 04:00 UT - May 14th, 03:59 UT is predicted on quiet level, due to previous of geomagnetic activity.

The ionosphere activity on May 14th, 04:00 UT - May 15th, 03:59 UT is predicted on quiet level, due to previous of geomagnetic activity.

The ionosphere activity on May 15th, 04:00 UT - May 16th, 03:59 UT is predicted on quiet level, due to previous of geomagnetic activity.

The ionosphere activity on May 16th, 04:00 UT - May 17th, 03:59 UT is predicted on minor level, due to previous of geomagnetic activity.

Navigation

Based on TEC and scintilation , the error of the single frequency GPS positioning for last 24 hours was in normal level.

 

Based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning on May 13th, 04:00 UT - May 14th, 03:59 UT is predicted on normal level.

Based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning on May 14th, 04:00 UT - May 15th, 03:59 UT is predicted on normal level.

Based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning on May 15th, 04:00 UT - May 16th, 03:59 UT is predicted on normal level.

Based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning on May 16th, 04:00 UT - May 17th, 03:59 UT is predicted on normal level.

HF Radio Communication

MUF depression was in strong condition and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) was in moderate for last 24 hours.

 

The MUF depression on May 13th, 04:00 UT - May 14th, 03:59 UT is predicted on quiet level, due to previous of geomagnetic activity.

The MUF depression on May 14th, 04:00 UT - May 15th, 03:59 UT is predicted on quiet level, due to previous of geomagnetic activity.

The MUF depression on May 15th, 04:00 UT - May 16th, 03:59 UT is predicted on quiet level, due to previous of geomagnetic activity.

The MUF depression on May 16th, 04:00 UT - May 17th, 03:59 UT is predicted on minor level, due to previous of geomagnetic activity.

 

The SWF on May 13th, 04:00 UT - May 14th, 03:59 UT is predicted in strong level due to the prediction of solar flare.

The SWF on May 14th, 04:00 UT - May 15th, 03:59 UT is predicted in quiet level due to the prediction of solar flare.

The SWF on May 15th, 04:00 UT - May 16th, 03:59 UT is predicted in quiet level due to the prediction of solar flare.

The SWF on May 16th, 04:00 UT - May 17th, 03:59 UT is predicted in quiet level due to the prediction of solar flare.

 

Satellites

The electron flux was on low level for the last 24 hours.

Low level of electron flux is expected for the next 24 hours.

Low level of electron flux is expected for 14 May 2026 07UT - 15 May 2026 07UT.

Low level of electron flux is expected for 15 May 2026 07UT - 16 May 2026 07UT.

Low level of electron flux is expected for 16 May 2026 07UT - 17 May 2026 07UT

The flux of high-energy protons in the past 24 hours was quiet.

Based on today's condition, 
the flux of high-energy proton for 13 May, 04:00 UT–14 May, 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet;
the flux of high-energy proton for 14 May, 04:00 UT–15 May, 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet;
the flux of high-energy proton for 15 May, 04:00 UT–16 May, 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet;
the flux of high-energy proton for 16 May, 04:00 UT–17 May, 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.