
Center for Space Research
The National Research and Innovation Agency
BRIN - Indonesia
Issued : 2026 May 20 0800 UTC
Forecast Valid For 24 Hours
Solar activity in the past 24 hours was eruptive.
There were five C-class solar flares that occurred in the past 24 hours. The strongest were C2.1 flares peaked at 07:40 and 20:00 UT from NOAA 14436. Three type III solar radio bursts and one east-directed CME were observed during this period. The CME had a median velocity of 398 km/s and an angular width of 52°. The latest SDO/HMI intensitygram data show five active regions (NOAA 14436, 14439, 14440, 14441, and 14443), while the latest BBSO H-alpha data show one H-alpha plage (NOAA 14442) on the solar disk. The GONG Calibrated Farside Map indicates that no new active regions are expected to appear on the solar limb in the next 24 hours.
Based on today's conditions, solar activity for the next 24 hours is predicted to be eruptive.
The geomagnetic activity was on active level for the last 24 hours.
The solar wind speed decreased from 632 km/s to 477 km/s, while the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field increased from -7.0 nT to 5.0 nT. There was one geoeffective coronal hole at the south pole, while the others at the northwest and eastern equator were not geoeffective.
An active level of geomagnetic activity is expected for the next 24 hours.
Ionosfer was in quite conditions on 24 hours.
There was depression in the foF2 of its median value for 15 minutes in the last 24 hours. There was an increment in fmin exceeding 30% of its median value for 60 minutes in the last 24 hours. There was no Spread-F Event in the last 24 hours. Sporadic E-layer during the day and night for 630 minutes with foEs values higher than foF2 values in the last 24 hours. The ionospheric scintillation index (S4) above Pontianak, had a value below 0.5 at a quite level and the maximum TEC value was 59.39 both observed above Pontianak.
The ionosphere activity is predicted to be quite for the next 24 hours.
The error of the single frequency GPS positioning for the next 24 hours was on normal level, based on ionospheric scintillation and TEC variation.
Based on ionospheric scintillation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning for the next 24 hours is predicted to be on normal level.
In the last 24 hours, the Maximum Usable Frequency (MUF) Depression was at a quite level, and the Short-Wave Fadeout (SWF) was at a moderate level.
The MUF depression for the next 24 hours is predicted at a quite level, due to previous geomagnetic activity.
The SWF for the next 24 hours is predicted at a quite level due to the prediction of a solar flare.
The electron flux was at a high level for the last 24 hours.
A high level of electron flux is expected for the next 24 hours.
The flux of high-energy protons in the past 24 hours was quiet.
Based on today's conditions, the flux of high-energy protons for the next 24 hours is predicted to be quiet.