Detailed Information

Solar Activity

Solar activity in the past 24 hours was quiet.

No flares occurred in the past 24 hours. There were three type III solar radio bursts but no CMEs observed during this period. The latest SDO/HMI intensitygram data show seven active regions (NOAA 14503, 14506, 14507, 14508, 14509, 14510, and 14511), while the latest BBSO H-alpha data show one H-alpha plage (NOAA 14504) on the solar disk. Based on farside data, no new active regions are expected to appear on the solar limb in the next 96 hours.

Based on today's conditions,

• solar activity for 14 August, 04:00 UT–15 August, 03:59 UT is predicted to be eruptive;
• solar activity for 15 August, 04:00 UT–16 August, 03:59 UT is predicted to be eruptive;
• solar activity for 16 August, 04:00 UT–17 August, 03:59 UT is predicted to be eruptive;
• solar activity for 17 August, 04:00 UT–18 August, 03:59 UT is predicted to be eruptive.

Geomagnetic Activity

The geomagnetic activity was on quiet level for the last 24 hours.

The solar wind speed decreased from 464 km/s to 376 km/s, while the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -5.5 nT and 4.0 nT. There was one geoeffective coronal hole at the central equator, while the others at the southeast, eastern equator, north pole, northwest, and northeast were not geoeffective. 

• A quiet level geomagnetic activity is expected for the next 24 hours;
• A quiet level geomagnetic activity is expected for 15 August, 04:00 UT–16 August, 03:59 UT;
• A quiet level geomagnetic activity is expected for 16 August, 04:00 UT–17 August, 03:59 UT;
• A quiet level geomagnetic activity is expected for 17 August, 04:00 UT–18 August, 03:59 UT.

Ionospheric Activity

Ionosphere was in minor conditions for last 24 hours.

There was depression of foF2 lower than 30% of its median value for 120 minutes in the last 24 hours. There was no  increment of fmin more than 30% of its median values for the last 24 hours. The Spread-F  not occurred for the last 24 hours. The Sporadic-E occurred in the night and daytime with foEs value exceeded the foF2 for several times for 1185 minutes for the last 24 hours. The S4 index values was quiet level (S4<0.4) and the maximum TEC index value was at 52.54, over Pontianak for the last 24 hours.

 

The ionosphere activity on August 14th, 04:00 UT - August 15th, 03:59 UT is predicted on quiet level, due to previous of geomagnetic activity.

The ionosphere activity on August 15th, 04:00 UT - August 16th, 03:59 UT is predicted on quiet level, due to previous of geomagnetic activity.

The ionosphere activity on August 16th, 04:00 UT - August 17th, 03:59 UT is predicted on quiet level, due to previous of geomagnetic activity.

The ionosphere activity on August 17th, 04:00 UT - August 18th, 03:59 UT is predicted on quiet level, due to previous of geomagnetic activity.

Navigation

Based on TEC and scintilation , the error of the single frequency GPS positioning for last 24 hours was in normal level.

 

Based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning on August 14th, 04:00 UT - August 15th, 03:59 UT is predicted on normal level.

Based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning on August 15th, 04:00 UT - August 16th, 03:59 UT is predicted on normal level.

Based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning on August 16th, 04:00 UT - August 17th, 03:59 UT is predicted on normal level.

Based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning on August 17th, 04:00 UT - August 18th, 03:59 UT is predicted on normal level.

HF Radio Communication

MUF depression was in moderate condition and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) was in quiet for last 24 hours.

 

The MUF depression on August 14th, 04:00 UT - August 15th, 03:59 UT is predicted on quiet level, due to previous of geomagnetic activity.

The MUF depression on August 15th, 04:00 UT - August 16th, 03:59 UT is predicted on quiet level, due to previous of geomagnetic activity.

The MUF depression on August 16th, 04:00 UT - August 17th, 03:59 UT is predicted on quiet level, due to previous of geomagnetic activity.

The MUF depression on August 17th, 04:00 UT - August 18th, 03:59 UT is predicted on quiet level, due to previous of geomagnetic activity.

 

The SWF on August 14th, 04:00 UT - August 15th, 03:59 UT is predicted in quiet level due to the prediction of solar flare.

The SWF on August 15th, 04:00 UT - August 16th, 03:59 UT is predicted in quiet level due to the prediction of solar flare.

The SWF on August 16th, 04:00 UT - August 17th, 03:59 UT is predicted in quiet level due to the prediction of solar flare.

The SWF on August 17th, 04:00 UT - August 18th, 03:59 UT is predicted in quiet level due to the prediction of solar flare.

Satellites

The electron flux was at a low level for the last 24 hours.

• A low level of electron flux is expected for the next 24 hours;
• A low level of electron flux is expected for 15 August, 04:00 UT–16 August, 03:59 UT;
• A low level of electron flux is expected for 16 August, 04:00 UT–17 August, 03:59 UT;
• A low level of electron flux is expected for 17 August, 04:00 UT–18 August, 03:59 UT.

The flux of high-energy protons in the past 24 hours was quiet.

Based on today's conditions, 

• the flux of high-energy proton for 14 August, 04:00 UT–15 August, 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet;
• the flux of high-energy proton for 15 August, 04:00 UT–16 August, 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet;
• the flux of high-energy proton for 16 August, 04:00 UT–17 August, 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet;
• the flux of high-energy proton for 17 August, 04:00 UT–18 August, 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.