SPACE WEATHER INFORMATION AND FORECAST SERVICES

Center for Space Research
The National Research and Innovation Agency
BRIN - Indonesia

2026 Jan 12

Geomagnet

Minor Storm

Ionosphere

Quiet

Forecast

Geomagnet

Minor Storm

Ionosphere

Minor

Issued : 2026 January 12 0800 UTC
Forecast Valid For 24 Hours

ESSENTIAL INFORMATION FOR SPACE WEATHER COMMUNITIES

HF Radio Communication

MUF Depression

Shortwave Fadeout / Radio Blackout

NAVIGATION

Error Positioning

SATELLITES

High Energy Proton

High Energy Electron

Detailed Information

Solar Activity

Solar activity was eruptive for 9 January 2026 at 04:00 UT – 10 January 2026 at 03:59 UT.

Solar activity was eruptive for 10 January 2026 at 04:00 UT – 11 January 2026 at 03:59 UT.

Solar activity was active for the last 24 hours.

There were 2 flares with 1 C-class flares and 1 M-class flares in the last 24 hours. The maximum flare class was M3.3 peaked at 23:14UT. There was no solar radioburst occured in the last 24 hours. There was 4 CME event in the last 24 hours. The east-directed CME has the highest median velocity of 1179 km/s with an angular width of 94 degrees and the west-directed CME has the highest median velocity of 1838 km/s with an angular width of 206 degrees. The latest SDO/HMI Intensitygram data shows 5 active regions (NOAA 4334, 4336, 4337, 4339, 4340) and the latest BBSO H-Alpha data shows 1 H-Alpha plage (NOAA 4338). Based on farside data shows 2 Regions Due to Return 12 Jan to 14 Jan from the east limb of the Solar disk.

Based on today's condition, solar activity for the next 24 hours is predicted to be active.

 

Geomagnetic Activity

The geomagnetic activity was at quiet level on 09 January 2026 04:00UT - 10 January 2026 03:59UT.
The geomagnetic activity was at minor storm level on 10 January 2026 04:00UT - 11 January 2026 03:59UT.
The geomagnetic activity was on minor storm level for the last 24 hours.

The solar wind speed increase from 373 km/s and 609 km/s, north-south component of interplanetary magnetic field increase from -17.5 nT to 12.3 nT. There were geoeffective coronal holes at north pole and western equator, while the others at eastern equator and central equator were not geoeffective. CME on 11 January 2026 23:36 UT was Halo III with speed of 1838 km/s and angular width of 206°. The CME was geoeffective and is likely to have impact on next 24 hours.

Minor Storm level geomagnetic activity is expected for the next 24 hours.

Ionospheric Activity

The ionosphere over the past 72 hours could not be evaluated due to a lack of data.

Ionospheric activity over the past 72 hours, related to foF2, fmin, Spread-F, and E-Sporadic values, could not be evaluated due to constraints at the observation station.In the past 72 hours, the ionospheric scintillation index (S4) over Pontianak was less than 0.5, indicating that scintillation was at a calm level. The maximum TEC values ​​over the past three days were 66.72, 68.22, and 60.58, respectively, both observed over Pontianak.

Ionospheric activity over the next 24 hours is predicted to be at a minor level.

Navigation

Positioning errors using single-frequency GPS for January 9, 04:00 UT - January 10, 03:59 UT were within normal levels, based on variations in ionospheric scintillation and TEC.
The positioning error using single-frequency GPS for January 10, 04:00 UT - January 11, 03:59 UT was within normal levels, based on variations in ionospheric scintillation and TEC.
The positioning error using single-frequency GPS for January 11, 04:00 UT - January 12, 03:59 UT was within normal levels, based on variations in ionospheric scintillation and TEC.

The probability of positioning error in the next 24 hours is predicted to be within normal levels, based on variations in ionospheric scintillation and TEC.

HF Radio Communication

In the past 72 hours, the Maximum Usable Frequency (MUF) Depression and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) conditions could not be evaluated.

The MUF Depression for the next 24 hours is at a moderate level, based on previous geomagnetic activity.
The SWF for the next 24 hours is predicted to be at a minor level, based on predicted solar flare classes.

Satellites

The electron flux was at low level on 09 January 2026 04:00UT - 10 January 2026 03:59UT.
The electron flux was at high level on 10 January 2026 04:00UT - 11 January 2026 03:59UT.
The electron flux was on low level for the last 24 hours.

High level of electron flux is expected for the next 24 hours.

The flux of high-energy proton was in quiet level for 9 January 2026 at 04:00 UT-10 January 2026 at 03:59 UT.

The flux of high-energy proton was in quiet level for 10 January 2026  at 04:00 UT-11 January 2026 at 03:59 UT.

The flux of high-energy proton was in quiet level for the last 24 hours.

Based on solar activity prediction, the flux of high-energy proton for the next 24 hours is predicted to be quiet.