
Center for Space Research
The National Research and Innovation Agency
BRIN - Indonesia
Issued : 2026 June 15 0800 UTC
Forecast Valid For 24 Hours
Solar activity for June 12, 2026 04:00 UT - June 13, 2026 03:59 UT was eruptive.
Solar activity for June 13, 2026 04:00 UT - June 14, 2026 03:59 UT was eruptive.
Solar activity for June 14, 2026 04:00 UT - June 15, 2026 03:59 UT was eruptive.
Four C-class solar flares were observed, with no M-class or X-class flares occurring. The strongest event was a C1.7 flare originating from NOAA 14464, which peaked at 2:14UT. Associated with this activity, five Type III solar radio bursts were detected, while no Type II or Type IV radio bursts were observed. One coronal mass ejection was observed, propagating from the western limb with an estimated speed of 469 kilometers per second and an angular width of 76 degrees.
On the visible disk, SDO/HMI imagery revealed four active regions: NOAA 14463, NOAA 14464, NOAA 14465, and NOAA 14468. Concurrently, BBSO H-Alpha observations identified three plages: NOAA 14462, NOAA 14466, and NOAA 14467. Looking beyond the visible disk, four active regions are due to return between June 15 and June 17.
Based on today's condition, solar activity for:
June 15th, 2026 04:00 UT - June 16th, 2026 03:59 UT is predicted to be eruptive.
June 16th, 2026 04:00 UT - June 17th, 2026 03:59 UT is predicted to be eruptive.
The geomagnetic activity was at an active level on 12 June 2026 07 UT - 13 June 2026 07 UT.
The geomagnetic activity was at a quiet level on 13 June 2026 07 UT - 14 June 2026 07 UT.
The geomagnetic activity was at a quiet level for the last 24 hours.
The solar wind speed decreased from 607 km/s to 407 km/s, and the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -5.5 nT and 6.2 nT. There were geoeffective coronal holes at the central equator and western equator, while the others at the north pole, eastern equator, north-east, and south pole were not geoeffective. CME on 14 June 2026 19:36 UT was mainly erupted toward the north with a speed of 469 km/s and an angular width of 76°. The CME was geoeffective and is likely to have no impact until the next 2 days.
Active level geomagnetic activity is expected for the next 24 hours.
Quiet level geomagnetic activity is expected for 16 June 2026 07UT - 17 June 2026 07UT
Ionosfer was in minor conditions on 12 June 04:00 UT - 13 June 03:59 UT.
Ionosfer was in quiet conditions on 13 June 04:00 UT - 14 June 03:59 UT.
Ionosfer was in minor conditions on 14 June 04:00 UT - 15 June 03:59 UT.
There were a depression of foF2 lower than 30% of its median value for 75 minutes in 12-13 June and 30 minutes in 14-15 June. There were increment of fmin more than 30% of its median values for 15 minutes, 30 minutes, and 45 minutes in the last three days, respectively. The Spread-F were occurred for 75 minutes in 14-15 June. The Sporadic-E were occurred in the night and daytime with foEs value exceeding the foF2 value for 1335 minutes, 1395 minutes, and 1080 minutes in the last three days, respectively. The S4 index values (condition of ionospheric scintillation ) were lower than 0.5 (quiet) in 12-14 June and less than 0.8 (moderate) in 14-15 June. TEC maximum at 68.9, 67.08, dan 63.81 (quiet) in the last three days.
The ionosphere activity on June 15th, 04:00 UT - June 16th, 03:59 UT is predicted to be Quiet.
The ionosphere activity on June 16th, 04:00 UT - June 17th, 03:59 UT is predicted to be Quiet.
Based on TEC, the error of the single-frequency GPS positioning on 12 June 04:00 UT - 13 June 03:59 UT was at a normal level.
Based on TEC, the error of the single-frequency GPS positioning on 13 June 04:00 UT - 14 June 03:59 UT was at a normal level.
Based on TEC, the error of the single-frequency GPS positioning on 14 June 04:00 UT - 15 June 03:59 UT was at a slight level.
Based on ionospheric scintillation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning on June 15th, 04:00 UT - June 16th, 03:59 UT is predicted at a normal level.
Based on ionospheric scintillation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning on June 16th, 04:00 UT - June 17th, 03:59 UT is predicted at a normal level.
MUF depression was in moderate condition and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) was in quiet level on 12 June 04:00 UT - 13 June 03:59 UT.
MUF depression was in quiet condition and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) was in minor level on 13 June 04:00 UT - 14 June 03:59 UT.
MUF depression was in minor condition and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) was in moderate level on 14 June 04:00 UT - 15 June 03:59 UT.
The MUF depression on June 15th, 04:00 UT - June 16th, 03:59 UT is predicted on a quiet level, due to previous geomagnetic activity.
The MUF depression on June 16th, 04:00 UT - June 17th, 03:59 UT is predicted on a quiet level, due to previous geomagnetic activity.
The SWF on June 15th, 04:00 UT - June 16th, 03:59 UT is predicted at a quiet level due to the prediction of solar flare.
The SWF on June 16th, 04:00 UT - June 17th, 03:59 UT is predicted at a quiet level due to the prediction of solar flare.
The electron flux was at low level on 12 June 2026 07 UT - 13 June 2026 07 UT.
The electron flux was at high level on 13 June 2026 07 UT - 14 June 2026 07 UT.
The electron flux was on high level for the last 24 hours.
High level of electron flux is expected for the next 24 hours.
High level of electron flux is expected for 16 June 2026 07 UT - 17 June 2026 07 UT
The flux of high-energy protons was quiet condition for June 12th, 2026 04:00 UT - June 13th, 2026 03:59 UT.
The flux of high-energy protons was quiet condition for June 13th, 2026 04:00 UT - June 14th, 2026 03:59 UT.
The flux of high-energy protons was quiet condition for June 14th, 2026 04:00 UT - June 15th, 2026 03:59 UT.
Based on today's condition, the flux of high-energy protons for :
June 15th, 2026 04:00 UT – June 16th, 2026 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.
June 16th, 2026 04:00 UT - June 17th, 2026 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet