
Center for Space Research
The National Research and Innovation Agency
BRIN - Indonesia
Issued : 2025 December 08 0800 UTC
Forecast Valid For 24 Hours
Solar activity for December 5, 2025 04:00 UT - December 6, 2025 03:59 UT was active.
Solar activity for December 6, 2025 04:00 UT - December 7, 2025 03:59 UT was active.
Solar activity for December 7, 2025 04:00 UT - December 8, 2025 03:59 UT was active.
There were 19 flares with 18 C-class flares and 1 M-class flare in the last 24 hours. The maximum flare class was M2.0 from NOAA 4294.0 peaked at 00:36UT. There were 5 solar radiobursts, all of which are type-III, that occurred in the last 24 hours. There were 11 CME events in the last 24 hours. The east-directed CME has the highest median velocity of 658 km/s with an angular width of 34 degrees, and the west-directed CME has the highest median velocity of 1498 km/s with an angular width of 24 degrees. No plage in the solar disk, but the latest SDO/HMI Intensitygram data shows 7 active regions (NOAA 4294, 4295, 4296, 4298, 4299, 4300, and 4303). Farside data shows no active region is going to appear from the east limb of the Solar disk in the next 24 hours.
Based on today's condition, solar activity for the next 24 hours is predicted to be a major flare.
The geomagnetic activity was at an active level on 05 December 2025, 07 UT - 06 December 2025, 07 UT.
The geomagnetic activity was at an active level on 06 December 2025 07 UT - 07 December 2025 07 UT.
The geomagnetic activity was at a quiet level for the last 24 hours.
The solar wind speed decreased from 732 km/s to 546 km/s, the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -6.1 nT and 6.5 nT. There was a geoeffective coronal hole at the western equator, while the other at the eastern equator was not geoeffective. CME on 07 December 2025 12:48 UT was mainly erupted toward north-west with a speed of 1498 km/s and an angular width of 24°. The CME was geoeffective and is likely to have an impact on the next 24 hours.
Minor storm-level geomagnetic activity is expected for the next 24 hours.
Ionosphere activity was not evaluated due to no data from 5 Desember 2025, 04:00 UT - 8 Desember 2025, 03:59 UT.
The S4 index value (condition of ionospheric scintillation) was quiet (S4<0,5) from 5 Desember 2025, 04:00 UT - 8 Desember 2025, 03:59 UT. TheTEC index was quiet (VTEC<125) from 5 Desember 2025, 04:00 UT - 8 Desember 2025, 03:59 UT.
The ionosphere activity is predicted to be moderate for the next 24 hours.
Based on ionospheric scintillation and TEC variation, the error of the single-frequency GPS positioning from 5 Desember 2025, 04:00 UT - 8 Desember 2025, 03:59 UT was at a normal level.
Based on ionospheric scintillation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning for the next 24 hours is predicted at a normal level.
MUF depression and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) were not evaluated due to no data from 5 Desember 2025, 04:00 UT - 8 Desember 2025, 03:59 UT.
The MUF depression for the next 24 hours is predicted on a moderate level, due to previous geomagnetic activity.
The SWF for the next 24 hours is predicted at a strong level due to the prediction of a solar flare.
The electron flux was at a high level on 05 December 2025 07 UT - 06 December 2025 07 UT.
The electron flux was at a high level on 06 December 2025 07 UT - 07 December 2025 07 UT.
The electron flux was at a high level for the last 24 hours.
A high level of electron flux is expected for the next 24 hours.
The flux of high-energy protons was quiet condition for December 5, 2025 04:00 UT - December 6, 2025 03:59 UT.
The flux of high-energy protons was quiet condition for December 6, 2025 04:00 UT - December 7, 2025 03:59 UT.
The flux of high-energy protons was quiet condition for December 7, 2025 04:00 UT - December 8, 2025 03:59 UT.
Based on today's condition, the flux of high-energy protons is predicted to be quiet for the next 24 hours.