Detailed Information

Solar Activity

Solar activity in the past 24 hours was active.

Nineteen flares consisting of nine C-class flares and ten M-class flares occurred in the past 24 hours. The strongest was a M2.7 flare, which peaked at 04:36 UT from NOAA 14366. Seven type III solar radio bursts and five west-directed CMEs were recorded during this period. The CME had the highest median velocity of 649 km/s and an angular width of 26°. The latest SDO/HMI Intensitygram data show eight active regions (NOAA 14358, 14362, 14366, 14367, 14368, 14369, 14370, and 14371), while the latest BBSO H-alpha data reveal four plages (NOAA 14359, 14360, 14363, and 14372) on the solar disk. Farside data show four active regions expected to return from the solar eastern limb in the next 72 hours.

Based on today's conditions,

• solar activity for 06 February, 04:00 UT–07 February, 03:59 UT is predicted to be major flare;
• solar activity for 07 February, 04:00 UT–08 February, 03:59 UT is predicted to be active;
• solar activity for 08 February, 04:00 UT–09 February, 03:59 UT is predicted to be active.

Geomagnetic Activity

The geomagnetic activity was on minor storm level for the last 24 hours.

The solar wind speed increased from 501 km/s to 652 km/s, while the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field decreased  from 14.0 nT to -3.0 nT. There was one geoeffective coronal hole at the central-equator, while other at the northeast was not geoeffective. CME on 05 February at 05:24 UT was mainly erupted toward the west with a speed of 388 km/s and an angular width of 8°.The CME was geoeffective but is likely to have no impact until the next 3 days.

• Moderate storm level geomagnetic activity is expected for the next 24 hours;
• Minor storm level geomagnetic activity is expected for 07 February, 04:00 UT–08 February, 03:59 UT;
• Active level geomagnetic activity is expected for 08 February, 04:00 UT–09 February, 03:59 UT.

Ionospheric Activity

The ionospheric activity for the last 24 hours cannot be evaluated due to problems with the CADI

station. The S4 index values (condition of ionospheric scintillation) was on a quiet level (S4<0.5), and the maximum TEC index value was at 91.09, both over Pontianak.

The ionosphere activity is predicted to be moderate level on February  06th 2026, 04:00 UT - February  07th 2026 03:59 UT.

The ionosphere activity is predicted to be minor level on February  07th 2026, 04:00 UT - February  08th 2026 03:59 UT.

The ionosphere activity is predicted to be minor level on February  08th 2026, 04:00 UT - February  09th 2026 03:59 UT.

Navigation

The error of the single frequency GPS positioning for the last 24 hours was on normal level,

based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation.

Based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning for

February  06th 2026, 04:00 UT - February  07th 2026 03:59 UT is predicted to be on normal level.

Based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning for

February  07th 2026, 04:00 UT - February  08th 2026 03:59 UT is predicted to be on normal level.

Based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning for

February  08th 2026, 04:00 UT - February  09th 2026 03:59 UT is predicted to be on normal level.

HF Radio Communication

MUF depression and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) cannot be evaluated for the last 24 hours.

The MUF depression for February  06th 2026, 04:00 UT - February  07th 2026 03:59 UT is predicted at a strong

level, due to previous geomagnetic activity.

The MUF depression for February  07th 2026, 04:00 UT - February  08th 2026 03:59 UT is predicted at a moderate

level, due to predicted geomagnetic activity.

The MUF depression for February  08th 2026, 04:00 UT - February  09th 2026 03:59 UT is predicted at a minor

level, due to predicted geomagnetic activity.

 

The SWF for February  06th 2026, 04:00 UT - February  07th 2026 03:59 UT is predicted at a strong level due to

the prediction of a solar flare.

The SWF for February  07th 2026, 04:00 UT - February  08th 2026 03:59 UT  is predicted at a minor level due to

the prediction of a solar flare.

The SWF for February  08th 2026, 04:00 UT - February  09th 2026 03:59 UT is predicted at a minor level due to

the prediction of a solar flare.

Satellites

The electron flux was at a low level for the last 24 hours.

A low level of electron flux is expected for the next 24 hours;
A low level of electron flux is expected for 07 February, 04:00 UT–08 February, 03:59 UT;
A low level of electron flux is expected for 08 February, 04:00 UT–09 February, 03:59 UT.

The flux of high-energy protons in the past 24 hours was quiet.

Based on today's condition,

• the flux of high-energy proton for 06 February, 04:00 UT–07 February, 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet;
• the flux of high-energy proton for 07 February, 04:00 UT–08 February, 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet;
• the flux of high-energy proton for 08 February, 04:00 UT–09 February, 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.