Detailed Information

Solar Activity

Solar activity over the past 24 hours was eruptive. 

One C-class flare was observed, with no M-class or X-class flares. The maximum flare observed was a C1.4 from NOAA 14545, peaking at 21:37 UT. No solar radio bursts of Type II, Type III, or Type IV were reported. One coronal mass ejection was detected, originating from the western limb with a speed of 200 kilometers per second and an angular width of 38 degrees. On the visible disk, SDO/HMI instruments observed three active regions: NOAA 14535, NOAA 14544, and NOAA 14545. Additionally, two H-alpha plages were identified by BBSO, corresponding to NOAA 14533 and NOAA 14542. No farside active regions were observed returning to the visible disk. 

Based on todya's condition,
Solar activity for October 2nd, 2026 04:00 UT - October 3rd, 2026 03:59 UT is predicted to be eruptive.
Solar activity for October 3rd, 2026 04:00 UT - October 4th, 2026 03:59 UT is predicted to be eruptive.
Solar activity for October 4th, 2026 04:00 UT - October 5th, 2026 03:59 UT is predicted to be eruptive.

Geomagnetic Activity

The geomagnetic activity was on quiet level for the last 24 hours.

The solar wind speed decrease from 310 km/s to 269 km/s. The north-south component of interplanetary magnetic field fluctuate between -2.0 nT and 4.7 nT. Corona holes at eastern equator and southern hemisphere were not geoeffective, meanwhile at equator and north-western were geoeffective. CME on 01 October 2026 17:00 UT was mainly errupted toward north-west with speed of 151 km/s and angular width of 38°. The CME was geoeffective and is likely to have not impact until next 3 days.

Active level geomagnetic activity is expected for the next 24 hours.
Quiet level geomagnetic activity is expected for 3 October 2026 04UT - 4 October 2026 04UT.
Quiet level geomagnetic activity is expected for 4 October 2026 04UT - 5 October 2026 04UT.

Ionospheric Activity

Ionosphere was in Quiet level for the last 24 hours.

There was no depression of foF2 lower than 30% of its median values.There was increment of fmin more than 30% of its median values for 15 minutes. The Spread-F occured for 600 minutes. The Sporadic E layer occured in the night and daytime for 675 minutes with foEs value exceeded the foF2 for 120 minutes. The S4 index values (condition of ionospheric scintillation) was on Moderate (S4 < 0.8) level last 24 hours over Agam. The TEC values was on Quiet (VTEC < 125) level last 24 hours over Agam.

The ionosphere activity on October 2nd, 04:00 UT - October 3rd, 03:59 UT is predicted to be Quiet.
The ionosphere activity on October 3rd, 04:00 UT - October 4th, 03:59 UT is predicted to be Quiet.
The ionosphere activity on October 4th, 04:00 UT - October 5th, 03:59 UT is predicted to be Quiet.

Navigation

For the last 24 hours, the error of the single frequency GPS positioning was on Slight level.

The probability of error positioning on October 2nd, 04:00 UT - October 3rd, 03:59 UT is predicted to be Slight, based on scintillation and TEC variations.
The probability of error positioning on October 3rd, 04:00 UT - October 4th, 03:59 UT is predicted to be Slight, based on scintillation and TEC variations.
The probability of error positioning on October 4th, 04:00 UT - October 5th, 03:59 UT is predicted to be Slight, based on scintillation and TEC variations.

HF Radio Communication

The MUF(Maximum Usable Frequency) depression was in Quiet condition and the SWF (Short Wave Fadeout) was in Quiet for the last 24 hours.

The MUF depression on October 2nd, 04:00 UT - October 3rd, 03:59 UT is predicted to be Quiet, based on prediction of geomagnetic activity.
The MUF depression on October 3rd, 04:00 UT - October 4th, 03:59 UT is predicted to be Quiet, based on prediction of geomagnetic activity.
The MUF depression on October 4th, 04:00 UT - October 5th, 03:59 UT is predicted to be Quiet, based on prediction of geomagnetic activity.

The SWF on October 2nd, 04:00 UT - October 3rd, 03:59 UT is predicted to be Quiet, based on prediction of Solar activity.
The SWF on October 3rd, 04:00 UT - October 4th, 03:59 UT is predicted to be Quiet, based on prediction of Solar activity.
The SWF on October 4th, 04:00 UT - October 5th, 03:59 UT is predicted to be Quiet, based on prediction of Solar activity.

Satellites

The electron flux was on high level for the last 24 hours.

High level of electron flux is expected for the next 24 hours.
High level of electron flux is expected for  October 2026 04UT - 4 October 2026 04UT.
High level of electron flux is expected for 4 October 2026 04UT - 5 October 2026 04UT.

The 10 MeV proton flux remained quiet over the past 24 hours. 

Based on these conditions, 
The proton flux is expected to be quiet for October 2nd, 2026 04:00 UT - October 3rd, 2026 03:59 UT,
The proton flux is expected to be quiet for October 3rd, 2026 04:00 UT - October 4th, 2026 03:59 UT.
The proton flux is expected to be quiet for October 4th, 2026 04:00 UT - October 5th, 2026 03:59 UT.