SPACE WEATHER INFORMATION AND FORECAST SERVICESS

Center for Space Research
The National Research and Innovation Agency
BRIN - Indonesia

2026 Aug 21

Geomagnet

Active

Ionosphere

Quiet

Forecast

Geomagnet

Active

Ionosphere

Quiet

Issued : 2026 August 21 0800 UTC
Forecast Valid For 24 Hours

ESSENTIAL INFORMATION FOR SPACE WEATHER COMMUNITIES

HF Radio Communication

MUF Depression

Shortwave Fadeout / Radio Blackout

Application

NAVIGATION

Error Positioning

SATELLITES

High Energy Proton

High Energy Electron

Detailed Information

Solar Activity

Solar activity was active over the past 24 hours.

A total of 16 flares were observed, comprising 13 C-class flares and 3 M-class flares. No X-class flares were observed. The strongest event was an M8.1 flare from NOAA 14513, peaking at 11:42UT. Associated with this activity, 2 Type III radio bursts were detected; no Type II or Type IV radio bursts were observed. Additionally, 6 coronal mass ejections were observed. The westernmost event had an estimated speed of 1109 km/s and an angular width of 24 degrees, while the easternmost event was estimated at 1360 km/s with an angular width of 14 degrees.

On the visible disk, SDO/HMI instruments detected 4 active NOAA 14507, NOAA 14508, NOAA 14513, and NOAA 14514. Meanwhile, BBSO H-Alpha observations indicated 2 plages, NOAA 14511 and NOAA 14512. Furthermore, 4 farside regions are due to return between 21 August and 23 August. 

Based on today's conditions,

Solar activity is predicted to be active from 04:00 UT on August 21, 2026, to 03:59 UT on August 22, 2026.

Solar activity is predicted to be active from 04:00 UT on August 22, 2026, to 03:59 UT on August 23, 2026.

Solar activity is predicted to be active from 04:00 UT on August 23, 2026, to 03:59 UT on August 24, 2026.

Geomagnetic Activity

The geomagnetic activity was on active level for the last 24 hours.

The solar wind speed decrease from 630 km/s to 528 km/s, north-south component of interplanetary magnetic field fluctuate between -7.4 nT and 6.2 nT. There were geoeffective coronal holes at north-west and western equator, while the others at north pole and south-east were not geoeffective. CME on 20 August 2026 18:48 UT was mainly errupted toward west with speed of 703 km/s and angular width of 88°. The CME was geoeffective and is likely to have not impact until next 3 days.

Active level geomagnetic activity is expected for the next 24 hours.
Quiet level geomagnetic activity is expected for 22 August 2026 07UT - 23 August 2026 07UT
Quiet level geomagnetic activity is expected for 23 August 2026 07UT - 24 August 2026 07UT

Ionospheric Activity

The ionosphere was at a quiet level for the last 24 hours.

There was 15 minutes depression of foF2 lower than 30% of its median value. There was 90 minutes increment of fmin more than 30% of its median value. The Spread-F was not detected for the last 24 hours. There were 960 minutes of Sporadic-E that occurred in the night and daytime, with foEs values exceeding foF2 several times. The S4 index values (condition of ionospheric scintillation ) were less than 0.5, and the maximum TEC index value was 65,99, both over Pontianak.

 

The ionosphere activity for the next 24 hours is predicted to be quiet.

The ionosphere activity for 22 August 2026 04UT - 23 August 2026 04UT is predicted to be quiet.

The ionosphere activity for 23 August 2026 04UT - 24 August 2026 04UT is predicted to be quiet.

 


 

 

Navigation

Based on TEC and scintillation, the error of the single-frequency GPS positioning for the last 24 hours was at a normal level.

Based on ionospheric scintillation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning for the next 24 hours is predicted at a normal level.

Based on ionospheric scintillation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning for 22 August 2026 04UT - 23 August 2026 04UT is predicted at a normal level.

Based on ionospheric scintillation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning for 23 August 2026 04UT - 24 August 2026 04UT is predicted at a normal level.

 

 


 

HF Radio Communication

MUF depression was at a quiet level, and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) was at a moderate level for the last 24 hours.

The MUF depression for the next 24 hours is predicted on a quiet level, due to previous geomagnetic activity.

The MUF depression for 22 August 2026 04UT - 23 August 2026 04UT is predicted on a quiet level, due to previous geomagnetic activity.

The MUF depression for 23 August 2026 04UT - 24 August 2026 04UT is predicted on a quiet level, due to previous geomagnetic activity.

The SWF for the next 24 hours is predicted at a minor level due to the prediction of a solar flare.

The SWF for 08 August 2026 04UT - 09 August 2026 04UT is predicted at a minor level due to the prediction of a solar flare.

The SWF for 09 August 2026 04UT - 10 August 2026 04UT is predicted at a minor level due to the prediction of a solar flare.

Satellites

The electron flux was on low level for the last 24 hours.

Low level of electron flux is expected for the next 24 hours.
Low level of electron flux is expected for 22 August 2026 07UT - 23 August 2026 07UT
Low level of electron flux is expected for 23 August 2026 07UT - 24 August 2026 07UT

The 10 MeV proton flux remained quiet over the past 24 hours.

Based on today's conditions,

Proton flux is predicted to be quiet from 04:00 UT on August 21, 2026, to 03:59 UT on August 22, 2026.

Proton flux is predicted to be quiet from 04:00 UT on August 22, 2026, to 03:59 UT on August 23, 2026.

Proton flux is predicted to be quiet from 04:00 UT on August 23, 2026, to 03:59 UT on August 24, 2026.