SPACE WEATHER INFORMATION AND FORECAST SERVICES

Center for Space Research
The National Research and Innovation Agency
BRIN - Indonesia

2026 Jan 20

Geomagnet

Moderate Storm

Ionosphere

Quiet

Forecast

Geomagnet

Major Storm

Ionosphere

Moderate

Issued : 2026 January 20 0800 UTC
Forecast Valid For 24 Hours

ESSENTIAL INFORMATION FOR SPACE WEATHER COMMUNITIES

HF Radio Communication

MUF Depression

Shortwave Fadeout / Radio Blackout

NAVIGATION

Error Positioning

SATELLITES

High Energy Proton

High Energy Electron

Detailed Information

Solar Activity

Solar activity was active in the last 24 hours.    

There were 7 flares with 6 C-class flares and 1 M-class flares in the last 24 hours. The maximum flare class was M1.1 from NOAA 4345 peaked at 11:19 UT. There was no solar radioburst occured in the last 24 hours. There was 11 CME event in the last 24 hours. The east-directed CME has the highest median velocity of 1562 km/s with an angular width of 52 degrees and the west-directed CME has the highest median velocity of 1572 km/s with an angular width of 8 degrees. The latest SDO/HMI Intensitygram data shows 10 active regions (NOAA 4341, 4342, 4343, 4344, 4345, 4347, 4348, 4349, 4350, and 4351) and the latest BBSO H-Alpha data shows 2 H-Alpha plages (NOAA 4340 and 4346). Based on farside data shows 4 Regions Due to Return 20 Jan to 22 Jan from the east limb of the Solar disk.

Based on today's condition, solar activity for the next 24 hours is predicted to be active.

Geomagnetic Activity

The geomagnetic activity was on moderate storm level for the last 24 hours.

The solar wind speed increased from 416 km/s to 712 km/s, north-south component of interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -7.6 nT and 5.4 nT There was geoeffective coronal hole at south-east. CME on 19 January 2026 23:49 UT was mainly erupted toward south-west with speed of 1572 km/s and an angular width of 8°. The CME was geoeffective and is likely to have an impact on next 24 hours.

Major storm level geomagnetic activity is expected for the next 24 hours.

Ionospheric Activity

Evaluation of the ionospheric activity based on the foF2 value, the fmin value, Spread-F, and the Sporadic E-Layer cannot be reported due to unavailable data observation. However, the S4 index values (condition of ionospheric scintillation) was < 0.5 on the last 24 hours over Pontianak. TEC index was on quiet level (VTEC<125) on the last 24 hours over Pontianak.

The ionosphere activity on the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate.

 

Navigation

Based on TEC and scintillation, the error of the single-frequency GPS positioning for the last 24 hours was in normal level.

Based on ionospheric scintillation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning in the next 24 hours is predicted in normal level.

 

HF Radio Communication

The MUF depression and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) for the last 24 hours cannot be evaluated due to unavailable data observation.

The MUF depression on the next 24 hours is predicted in strong level due to previous of geomagnetic activity.

The SWF for the next 24 hours is predicted in minor level due to the prediction of the solar flare.

Satellites

The electron flux was on high level for the last 24 hours.

Low level of electron flux is expected for the next 24 hours.

The flux of high-energy protons was on major proton level for the last 24 hours.

Based on today's conditon, the flux of high energy proton is predicted to be in major proton condition for the next 24 hours.