
Center for Space Research
The National Research and Innovation Agency
BRIN - Indonesia
Issued : 2026 July 24 0800 UTC
Forecast Valid For 24 Hours
Solar activity has been eruptive over the past 24 hours. Four solar flares were observed, all C-class, with no M-class or X-class flares. The strongest event was a C1.9 flare originating from NOAA 14493, peaking at 16:52 UT. Associated with this activity, no solar radio bursts were reported in the past 24 hours.
Two coronal mass ejections were detected. One CME was observed propagating from the east, with a speed of 852 kilometers per second and an angular width of 8 degrees. No specific parameters were provided for the other event. On the visible disk, five active regions were observed by SDO/HMI: NOAA 14489, NOAA 14492, NOAA 14493, NOAA 14494, and NOAA 14495. Additionally, two H-alpha plages were identified by BBSO: NOAA 14490 and NOAA 14491. A farside region is expected to emerge onto the visible disk between July 24 and July 26.
Based on predictions from the Random Forest model, solar activity for :
July 24th, 2026 04:00 UT - July 25th, 2026 03:59 UT is predicted to be eruptive.
July 25th, 2026 04:00 UT - July 26th, 2026 03:59 UT is predicted to be eruptive.
July 26th, 2026 04:00 UT - July 27th, 2026 03:59 UT is predicted to be eruptive.
The geomagnetic activity was on active level for the last 24 hours.
The solar wind speed increase from 379 km/s and 749 km/s, north-south component of interplanetary magnetic field fluctuate between -10.0 nT and 9.1 nT. There were geoeffective coronal holes at western equator, north-west and central equator, while the others at north-west, north pole and south-east were not geoeffective.
Minor storm level geomagnetic activity is expected for the next 24 hours.
Quiet level geomagnetic activity is expected for 25 July 2026 07UT - 26 July 2026 07UT
Quiet level geomagnetic activity is expected for 26 July 2026 07UT - 27 July 2026 07UT
Ionosphere activity for the last 24 hours could not be evaluated due to unavailable data.
The ionospheric activity regarding the foF2, fmin, Spread-F, and E-sporadis values for the last 24 hours could not be evaluated due to unavailable data from Pontianak station. However, the S4 index values (condition of ionospheric scintillation) was at quiet level (S4<0.4) and the maximum TEC index value was at quiet level (VTEC<125) with value of 66.69 TECU, both over Pontianak on the last 24 hours.
The ionosphere activity on July 24th, 04:00 UT - July 25th, 03:59 UT is predicted on minor level, due to previous of geomagnetic activity.
The ionosphere activity on July 25th, 04:00 UT - July 26th, 03:59 UT is predicted on quiet level, due to previous of geomagnetic activity.
The ionosphere activity on July 26th, 04:00 UT - July 27th, 03:59 UT is predicted on quiet level, due to previous of geomagnetic activity.
Based on TEC and scintilation , the error of the single frequency GPS positioning for last 24 hours was in normal level.
Based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning on July 24th, 04:00 UT - July 25th, 03:59 UT is predicted on normal level.
Based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning on July 25th, 04:00 UT - July 26th, 03:59 UT is predicted on normal level.
Based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning on July 26th, 04:00 UT - July 27th, 03:59 UT is predicted on normal level.
HF Radio Communication MUF (Maximum Usable Frequency) depression and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) for the last 24 hours could not be evaluated due to unavailable data from Pontianak Station.
The MUF depression on July 24th, 04:00 UT - July 25th, 03:59 UT is predicted on moderate level, due to previous of geomagnetic activity.
The MUF depression on July 25th, 04:00 UT - July 26th, 03:59 UT is predicted on quiet level, due to previous of geomagnetic activity.
The MUF depression on July 26th, 04:00 UT - July 27th, 03:59 UT is predicted on quiet level, due to previous of geomagnetic activity.
The SWF on July 24th, 04:00 UT - July 25th, 03:59 UT is predicted in quiet level due to the prediction of solar flare.
The SWF on July 25th, 04:00 UT - July 26th, 03:59 UT is predicted in quiet level due to the prediction of solar flare.
The SWF on July 26th, 04:00 UT - July 27th, 03:59 UT is predicted in quiet level due to the prediction of solar flare.
The electron flux was on low level for the last 24 hours.
Low level of electron flux is expected for the next 24 hours.
Low level of electron flux is expected for 25 July 2026 07UT - 26 July 2026 07UT
Low level of electron flux is expected for 26 July 2026 07UT - 27 July 2026 07UT
The 10 MeV proton flux remained quiet over the past 24 hours. Based on the observed conditions from the preceding 24 hours, the flux of high energy proton for :
July 24th, 2026 04:00 UT - July 25th, 2026 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.
July 25th, 2026 04:00 UT - July 26th, 2026 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.
July 26th, 2026 04:00 UT - July 27th, 2026 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.