
Center for Space Research
The National Research and Innovation Agency
BRIN - Indonesia
Issued : 2025 November 12 0800 UTC
Forecast Valid For 24 Hours
Solar activity was major flare in the last 24 hours.
There were 13 flares with 11 C-class flares, 1 M-class flares, and 1 X-class flares in the last 24 hours. The maximum flare class was X5.1 from NOAA 4274 peaked at 10:04 UT. There were 4 solar radioburst all of which are type-III occurred in the last 24 hours. There was 4 CME event in the last 24 hours. The east-directed CME has the highest median velocity of 1131 km/s with an angular width of 12 degrees and the west-directed CME has the highest median velocity of 888 km/s with an angular width of 8 degrees. The latest SDO/HMI Intensitygram data shows 8 active regions (NOAA 4272, 4274, 4275, 4276, 4277, 4279, 4280, and 4281) and the latest BBSO H-Alpha data shows 1 H-Alpha plages (NOAA 4278). Based on farside data shows 1 regions due to return 12 Nov to 14 Nov from the east limb of the Solar disk.
Based on today's condition, solar activity for the next 24 hours is predicted to be major flare.
The geomagnetic activity was on major storm level for the last 24 hours.
The solar wind speed fluctuate between 285 km/s and 572 km/s, north-south component of interplanetary magnetic field fluctuate between -4.9 nT and 5.9 nT. There was geoeffective coronal hole at central equator, while the others at north-east and western equator were not geoeffective. CME on 11 November 2025 10:24 UT was Halo IV with speed of 1041 km/s and angular width of 360°. The CME was geoeffective and is likely to have not impact on next 24 hours.
Major storm level geomagnetic activity is expected for the next 24 hours.
Ionosphere activity for the last 24 hours cannot be evaluated.
The ionospheric activity regarding the foF2, fmin, Spread-F, and E-sporadis values for the last 24 hours cannot be evaluated due to problems with the CADI station. The S4 index values (condition of ionospheric scintillation) was less than 0.5 and the maximum TEC index value was at 90.33, both over Pontianak.
The ionosphere activity is predicted to be on strong level for the next 24 hours.
he error of the single frequency GPS positioning for the last 24 hours was in normal level, based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation.
Based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning for the next 24 hours is predicted at a normal level.
MUF (Maximum Usable Frequency) depression and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) for the last 24 hours cannot be evaluated due to problems with the CADI station.
The MUF depression for the next 24 hours is predicted on severe level, due to previous geomagnetic activity.
The SWF for the next 24 hours is predicted in strong level due to the prediction of solar flare.
The electron flux was on very high level for the last 24 hours.
High level of electron flux is expected for the next 24 hours.
The flux of high-energy protons was major proton event condition for the last 24 hours.
Based on today's conditon, the flux of high energy proton is predicted to be in major proton event condition for the next 24 hours.