SPACE WEATHER INFORMATION AND FORECAST SERVICESS

Center for Space Research
The National Research and Innovation Agency
BRIN - Indonesia

2024 Apr 19

Geomagnet

Quiet

Ionosphere

Quiet

Forecast

Geomagnet

Quiet

Ionosphere

Quiet

Issued : 2024 April 21 0800 UTC
Forecast Valid For 24 Hours

ESSENTIAL INFORMATION FOR SPACE WEATHER COMMUNITIES

HF Radio Communication

MUF Depression

Shortwave Fadeout / Radio Blackout

Application

NAVIGATION

Error Positioning

SATELLITES

High Energy Proton

High Energy Electron

Detailed Information

Solar Activity

Solar activity was active in the last 24 hours.

There were 10 flares with 8 C-class flares and 2 M-class flares in the last 24 hours. The maximum flare class was M1.6 from NOAA 3647 peaked at 20:16 UT. There were 12 solar radiobursts all of which are type-III occurred in the last 24 hours. There were 6 CME events in the last 24 hours. The east-directed CME has the highest median velocity of 652 km/s with an angular width of 6 degrees and the west-directed CME has the highest median velocity of 1352 km/s with an angular width of 14 degrees. The latest SDO/HMI Intensitygram data shows 12 active regions (NOAA 3633, 3634, 3635, 3636, 3637, 3638, 3639, 3641, 3643, 3644, 3645, and 3646) and the latest BBSO H-Alpha data shows 2 H-Alpha plages (NOAA 3640 and 3642). STEREO/EUVI observation shows no active region is going to appear from the east limb of the Solar disk in the next 24 hours.

Based on today's condition,

solar activity for 19 April, 04:00 UT - 20 April, 03:59 UT is predicted to be active.

solar activity for 20 April, 04:00 UT - 21 April, 03:59 UT is predicted to be active.

solar activity for 21 April, 04:00 UT - 22 April, 03:59 UT is predicted to be active.

Geomagnetic Activity

The geomagnetic activity was on quiet level for the last 24 hours.

The solar wind speed fluctuate between 340 km/s and 489 km/s, north-south component of interplanetary magnetic field fluctuate between -7.2 nT and 8.6 nT. There were geoeffective coronal holes at central equator and western equator, while the others at south pole and south-west were not geoeffective. CME on 18 April 2024 18:00 UT was Halo II with speed of 219 km/s and angular width of 102°. The CME was geoeffective and is likely to have not impact until next 3 days.

Active level geomagnetic activity is expected for the next 24 hours.

Quiet level geomagnetic activity is expected for 20 April 2024 07 UT - 21 April 2024 07 UT.

Quiet level geomagnetic activity is expected for 21 April 2024 07 UT - 22 April 2024 07 UT.

Ionospheric Activity

Ionospheric Activity :

Ionosphere was in Quiet conditions for the last 24 hours.

There was no depression of foF2 lower than 30% of its median value. There was no increment of fmin more than 30% of its median values. There was The Spread-F occurr for 195 minutes the last 24 hours. The Sporadic-E occurred in the night and daytime with foEs value exceeded the foF2 for several times for 135 minutes. The S4 index values (condition of ionospheric scintillation ) was in severe condition with S4 index value was less than 0.8 over Pontianak.

The ionosphere activity on Apr 19th, 04:00 UT - Apr 20th, 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.

The ionosphere activity on Apr 20th, 04:00 UT - Apr 21st, 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.

The ionosphere activity on Apr 21st, 04:00 UT – Apr 22 nd, 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.

Navigation

Based on TEC and scintilation , the error of the single frequency GPS positioning for the last 24 hours was in Normal level.

Based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning in Apr 19th, 04:00 UT - Apr 20th, 03:59 UT is predicted at a Normal level.

Based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning in Apr 20th, 04:00 UT - Apr 21st, 03:59 UT is predicted at a normal level.

Based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning Apr 21st, 04:00 UT – Apr 22 nd, 03:59 UT is predicted at a normal level.

HF Radio Communication

MUF depression was in quiet condition and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) was in Quiet for the last 24 hours.

The MUF depression on Apr 19th, 04:00 UT - Apr 20th, 03:59 UT is predicted on quiet level, based on LAPAN Time Series method.

The MUF depression on Apr 20th, 04:00 UT - Apr 21st, 03:59 UT is predicted on quiet level, due to previous of geomagnetic activity.

The MUF depression on Apr 21st, 04:00 UT – Apr 22 nd, 03:59 UT is predicted on quiet level, due to previous of geomagnetic activity.

 

The SWF on Apr 19th, 04:00 UT - Apr 20th, 03:59 UT is predicted in MInor level due to the prediction of solar flare.

The SWF on Apr 20th, 04:00 UT - Apr 21st, 03:59 UT is predicted in Minor level due to the prediction of solar flare.

The SWF on Apr 21st, 04:00 UT – Apr 22 nd, 03:59 UT is predicted in Minor level due to the prediction of solar flare.

 

Satellites

The electron flux was on low level for the last 24 hours.

Low level of electron flux is expected for the next 24 hours.

Low level of electron flux is expected for 20 April 2024 07 UT - 21 April 2024 07 UT.

Low level of electron flux is expected for 21 April 2024 07 UT - 22 April 2024 07 UT.

The flux of high-energy proton was in quiet level in the last 24 hours.

Based on today's condition,

the flux of high-energy proton for 19 April, 04:00 UT - 20 April, 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.

the flux of high-energy proton for 20 April, 04:00 UT - 21 April, 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.

the flux of high-energy proton for 21 April, 04:00 UT - 22 April, 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.