SPACE WEATHER INFORMATION AND FORECAST SERVICES

Center for Space Research
The National Research and Innovation Agency
BRIN - Indonesia

2024 May 27

Geomagnet

Active

Ionosphere

Quiet

Forecast

Geomagnet

Active

Ionosphere

Quiet

Issued : 2024 May 27 0800 UTC
Forecast Valid For 24 Hours

ESSENTIAL INFORMATION FOR SPACE WEATHER COMMUNITIES

HF Radio Communication

MUF Depression

Shortwave Fadeout / Radio Blackout

NAVIGATION

Error Positioning

SATELLITES

High Energy Proton

High Energy Electron

Detailed Information

Solar Activity

Solar activity was eruptive for the last 24 hours.

There were 9 C-class flares that occurred in the last 24 hours. The maximum flare class was C7.4 from NOAA 3691 peaked at 17:06 UT in the last 24 hours. The type-III solar radio burst occurred 4 times. CME occurred 3 times in the last 24 hours. The west-directed CME has the highest median velocity of 451.0 km/s with an angular width of 6.0 degrees. The latest SDO/HMI Intensitygram data shows 10 active regions (NOAA 3685, 3686, 3689, 3690, 3691, 3692, 3693, 3694, 3695, and 3696) and the latest BBSO H-Alpha data shows 2 H-Alpha plages (NOAA 3684, and 3688). STEREO/EUVI observation shows a new active region is going to appear from the east limb of the Solar disk in the next 24 hours.

Based on today's condition,  solar activity for the next 24 hours is predicted to be active.

Geomagnetic Activity

The geomagnetic activity was on active level for the last 24 hours.

The solar wind speed stable around 385 km/s, north-south component of interplanetary magnetic field stable around -0.4 nT Coronal holes at south pole, north-west and eastern equator were not geoeffective. CME on 26 May 2024 13:36 UT was mainly errupted toward south-west with speed of 451 km/s and angular width of 6°. The CME was geoeffective and is likely to have not impact on next 24 hours.

Active level geomagnetic activity is expected for the next 24 hours.

Ionospheric Activity

The ionosphere activity was in quiet level for the last 24 hours.

There was no depression of foF2 lower than 30% of its median value in the last 24 hours . There was no increment of fmin more than 30% of its median values in the last 24 hours . The Spread-F  did not occurr in the last 24 hours. The Sporadic-E did not occurr in the night and daytime. The TEC  maximum  value was 77.85 TECU in the last 24 hours. The S4 index values (condition of ionospheric scintillation) was less  than 0,5  over Pontianak.

The ionosphere activity on the next 24 hours is predicted to be quiet.

Navigation

Based on TEC variation and scintilation, the error of the single-frequency GPS positioning for the last 24 hours was in normal level.

Based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning on the next 24 hours is predicted on normal level.

HF Radio Communication

The MUF depression was in quiet level and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) was in quiet level on the last 24 hours.

The MUF depression on the next 24 hours is predicted in quiet level based on the LAPAN Time Series method.

The SWF for the next 24 hours is predicted in minor level due to the prediction of the solar flare.

Satellites

The electron flux was on low level for the last 24 hours.

Low level of elektron flux is expected for the next 24 hours.

The flux of high-energy proton was in quiet level due to low solar activity.

Based on today's condition, the flux of high-energy proton for the next 24 hours is predicted to be quiet.