Detailed Information

Solar Activity

Solar activity in the past 24 hours was major flare.

Ten flares consisting of six C-class flares, three M-class flares, and one X-class flare, occurred in the past 24 hours. The strongest was an X2.7 flare, which peaked at 08:25 UT from NOAA 14087. Five type III solar radio bursts and five CMEs were observed during this period. The west-directed CMEs had the highest median velocity of 359 km/s and angular width of 118°, while the east-directed ones had the highest median velocity of 1014 km/s and angular width of 28°. The latest SDO/HMI Intensitygram data show four active regions (NOAA 14082, 14085, 14087, and 14088), while the latest BBSO H-alpha data reveal one H-alpha plage (NOAA 14084) on the solar disk. The GONG Calibrated Farside Map indicates that no new active region is expected to appear on the solar limb in the next 24 hours.

Based on today's conditions, solar activity for the next 24 hours is predicted to be active.

Geomagnetic Activity

The geomagnetic activity was on quiet level for the last 24 hours.

The solar wind speed increased from 338 km/s and 482 km/s, while the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -10.1 nT and 12.0 nT. There was one geoeffective coronal hole at the western equator, while the others at the southeast, central equator, southwest, and eastern equator were not geoeffective. CME on 14 May 2025 at 06:24 UT mainly erupted toward the northwest with a speed of 359 km/s and angular width of 118°. The CME was geoeffective and is not likely to have impact on the next 24 hours.

Active level geomagnetic activity is expected for the next 24 hours.

Ionospheric Activity

The ionosphere activity was disturbed on minor level in the last 24 hours.

There was no a depression of foF2 lower than 30% of its median values in the last 24 hours. There was an increment of fmin more than 30% of its median values for 15 minutes in the last 24 hours. The Spread-F occurred for 435 minutes in the last 24 hours. The Sporadic-E occurred in the night and daytime for 435 minutes in the last 24 hours. The TEC maximum value and the S4 index values (condition of ionospheric scintillation) can not be evaluated due to unavailable observation data.

The ionosphere activity on the next 24 hours is predicted to be quiet.

Navigation

The error of the single-frequency GPS positioning for the last 24 hours can not be evaluated due to unavailable observation data.

Based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning on the next 24 hours is predicted on normal level.

 

HF Radio Communication

The MUF depression was in quiet level and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) was in quiet level on the last 24 hours.

The MUF depression on the next 24 hours is predicted in quiet level due to previous of geomagnetic activity.

The SWF for the next 24 hours is predicted in minor level due to the prediction of the solar flare.

Satellites

The electron flux was at a low level for the last 24 hours.

A low level of electron flux is expected for the next 24 hours.

The flux of high-energy protons in the past 24 hours was an event in progress.

Based on today's conditions, the flux of high-energy protons for the next 24 hours is predicted to be quiet.