Center for Space Research
The National Research and Innovation Agency
BRIN - Indonesia
Issued : 2025 June 14 0800 UTC
Forecast Valid For 24 Hours
Solar activity was eruptive for the last 24 hours.
There were 5 flares with all of them are C-class flares in the last 24 hours. The maximum flare class was C5.8 from NOAA 4115 peaked at 17:48 UT. There were 3 solar radioburst all of which are type-III occurred in the last 24 hours. There was no CME event in the last 24 hours. The latest SDO/HMI Intensitygram data shows 8 active regions (NOAA 4105, 4107, 4110, 4111, 4112, 4113, 4114, and 4115) and the latest BBSO H-Alpha data shows 2 H-Alpha plages (NOAA 4108 and 4109). Based on farside data shows 3 regions due to return 13 Jun to 15 Jun from the east limb of the Solar disk.
Based on today's condition, solar activity for :
June 13th, 2025 04:00 UT - June 14th, 2025 03:59 UT is predicted to be active.
June 14th, 2025 04:00 UT - June 15th, 2025 03:59 UT is predicted to be active.
June 15th, 2025 04:00 UT - June 16th, 2025 03:59 UT is predicted to be active.
The geomagnetic activity was on moderate storm level for the last 24 hours.
The solar wind speed decrease from 511 km/s to 386 km/s, north-south component of interplanetary magnetic field decrease from 8.2 nT to -12.6 nT. There was geoeffective coronal hole at south-east, while the other at eastern equator were not geoeffective. CME on 11 June 2025 23:12 UT was mainly errupted with speed of 1838 km/s and angular width of 360°. The CME was geoeffective and is likely to have impact for next 24 hours.
Moderate storm level geomagnetic activity is expected for the next 24 hours.
Minor storm level geomagnetic activity is expected for 14 June 2025 07UT - 15 June 2025 07UT.
Minor storm level geomagnetic activity is expected for 15 June 2025 07UT - 16 June 2025 07UT.
Ionosphere was disturbed on moderate level for the last 24 hours.
There was 195 minutes depression of foF2 lower than 30% of its median value. There 60 minutes increment of fmin more than 30% of its median values. The Spread-F was not detected in the last 24 hours. There Sporadic-E was occurred for 12 hours and 15 minutesin the night and daytime with foEs value exceeded the foF2 for several times. The S4 index values (condition of ionospheric scintillation ) was lower than 0.5 and the TEC maximum value was 66.11 TECU, both observed over Pontianak.
The ionosphere activity on June 13th, 2025, 04:00 UT - June 14th, 2025, 03:59 UT is predicted to be moderate.
The ionosphere activity on June 14th, 2025, 04:00 UT - June 15th, 2025, 03:59 UT is predicted to be moderate.
The ionosphere activity on June 15th, 2025, 04:00 UT - June 16th, 2025, 03:59 UT is predicted to be minor.
The error of the single frequency GPS positioning for last 24 hours was in normal level, based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation.
Based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning in June 13th, 2025, 04:00 UT - June 14th, 2025, 03:59 UT is predicted at a normal level.
Based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning in June 14th, 2025, 04:00 UT - June 15th, 2025, 03:59 UT is predicted at a normal level.
Based on ionospheric scintilation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning in June 15th, 2025, 04:00 UT - June 16th, 2025, 03:59 UT is predicted at a normal level.
MUF depression was in severe condition and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) was moderate for the last 24 hours.
The MUF depression on June 13th, 2025, 04:00 UT - June 14th, 2025, 03:59 UT is predicted on strong level, due to previous of geomagnetic activity.
The MUF depression on June 14th, 2025, 04:00 UT - June 15th, 2025, 03:59 UT is predicted on strong level, due to previous of geomagnetic activity.
The MUF depression on June 15th, 2025, 04:00 UT - June 16th, 2025, 03:59 UT is predicted on moderate level, due to previous of geomagnetic activity.
The SWF on June 13th, 2025, 04:00 UT - June 14th, 2025, 03:59 UT is predicted in minor level due to the prediction of solar flare.
The SWF on June 14th, 2025, 04:00 UT - June 15th, 2025, 03:59 UT is predicted in minor level due to the prediction of solar flare.
The SWF on June 15th, 2025, 04:00 UT - June 16th, 2025, 03:59 UT is predicted in minor level due to the prediction of solar flare.
The electron flux was on low level for the last 24 hours.
Low level of elektron flux is expected for the next 24 hours.
Low level of electron flux is expected for 14 June 2025 07UT - 15 June 2025 07UT
Low level of electron flux is expected for 15 June 2025 07UT - 16 June 2025 07UT
The flux of high-energy protons was quiet for the last 24 hours.
Based on today's conditon, the flux of high energy proton for :
June 13th, 2025 04:00 UT - June 14th, 2025 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.
June 14th, 2025 04:00 UT - June 15th, 2025 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.
June 15th, 2025 04:00 UT - June 16th, 2025 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.