Detailed Information

Solar Activity

Solar activity was major flare for 3 May 2024 at 04 UT - 4 May 2024 at 03:59 UT.

Solar activity was active for 4 May 2024 at 04 UT - 5 May 2024 at 03:59 UT.

Solar activity was major flare in the last 24 hours.

There were 53 flares with 32 C-class flares, 18 M-class flares and 3 X-class flares in the last 24 hours. The maximum flare class was X1.3 from NOAA3663 at 5 Mei peaked at 6:01UT. There were 6 solar radioburst all of which are type-III occurred in the last 24 hours. There was no CME event in the last 24 hours. The latest SDO/HMI Intensitygram data shows 9 active regions (NOAA3661,3662,3663,3664,3665,3666,3667,3668,3669) and the latest BBSO H-Alpha data shows 1 H-Alpha plages (NOAA3660). STEREO/EUVI observation shows 6 Regions Due to Return 06 May to 08 May from the east limb of the Solar disk.

Based on today's condition, solar activity for the next 24 hours is predicted to be Major Flare.

Geomagnetic Activity

The geomagnetic activity was at minor storm level on 03 May 2024 04UT - 04 May 2024 04UT.
The geomagnetic activity was at active level on 04 May 2024 04UT - 05 May 2024 04UT.
The geomagnetic activity was on minor storm level for the last 24 hours.

During the periode 03 May 2024 04UT - 06 May 2024 04UT, in the beginning the solar wind speed decrease from 483 km/s to 307 km/s at 05 Meil 2024 11UT, then increase to 397 km/s, north-south component of interplanetary magnetic field in the beginning stable and then at 05 Mei 2024 fluctuated between -12 nT and 10 nT. Coronal holes at western, north east, and south-east were not geoeffective.

Active level geomagnetic activity is expected for the next 24 hours.

Ionospheric Activity

• Ionosfer was in quiet conditions on 3 May 04:00 UT - 4 May 03:59 UT.
• Ionosfer was in minor conditions on 4 May 04:00 UT - 5 May 03:59 UT.
• Ionosfer was in minor conditions for the last 24 hours.

There was a depression of foF2 lower than 30% of its median value on 4-5 May for 45 minutes and 5-6 May 120 minutes. There was an increment of fmin more than 30% of its median values on 3-4 May and 4-5 May for 45 minutes. The Spread-F occurred on 5-6 May for 30 minutes. The Sporadic-E occurred in the night and daytime with foEs value exceeding the foF2 value in the last 3 days for 270 minutes, 90 minutes, and 450 minutes. The S4 index values (condition of ionospheric scintillation ) was more than 0.8 in the last 3 days.

The ionosphere activity in the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate.
 

Navigation

• Based on TEC, the error of the single-frequency GPS positioning on 3 May 04:00 UT - 4 May 03:59 UT was at a slight level.
• Based on TEC, the error of the single-frequency GPS positioning on 4 May 04:00 UT - 5 May 03:59 UT was at a slight level.
• Based on TEC, the error of the single-frequency GPS positioning for the last 24 hours was at a slight level.

Based on ionospheric scintillation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning in the next 24 hours is predicted at a normal level.
 

HF Radio Communication

• MUF depression was in quiet condition and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) was in strong level on 3 May 04:00 UT - 4 May 03:59 UT.
• MUF depression was in moderate condition and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) was in moderate level on 4 May 04:00 UT - 5 May 03:59 UT.
• MUF depression was in moderate condition and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) was in strong level for the last 24 hours.

The MUF depression in the next 24 hours is predicted on a moderate level, based on the LAPAN Time Series method.

The SWF for the next 24 hours is predicted at a strong level due to the prediction of the solar flare.
 

Satellites

The electron flux was at low level on 03 May 2024 04UT - 04 May 2024 04UT.
The electron flux was at low level on 04 May 2024 04UT - 05 May 2024 04UT.
The electron flux was on low level for the last 24 hours.

Low level of elektron flux is expected for the next 24 hours.

The flux of high-energy proton for the last 72 hours was in quiet condition. 

Based on today's condition, 
the flux of high-energy proton for the next 24 hours is predicted to be quiet.