SPACE WEATHER INFORMATION AND FORECAST SERVICESS

Center for Space Research
The National Research and Innovation Agency
BRIN - Indonesia

Today

Geomagnet

Active

Ionosphere

Quiet

Forecast

Geomagnet

Quiet

Ionosphere

Minor

Issued : 2024 March 28 0800 UTC
Forecast Valid For 24 Hours

ESSENTIAL INFORMATION FOR SPACE WEATHER COMMUNITIES

HF Radio Communication

MUF Depression

Shortwave Fadeout / Radio Blackout

Application

NAVIGATION

Error Positioning

SATELLITES

High Energy Proton

High Energy Electron

Detailed Information

Solar Activity

Solar activity was active in the last 24 hours.

There were 12 flares with 11 C-class flares and 1 M-class flare in the last 24 hours. The maximum flare class was M1.1 from NOAA 3615 peaked at 6:41 UT. There were 4 solar radiobursts all of which are type-III occurred in the last 24 hours. There were 3 CME events in the last 24 hours. The east-directed CME has the highest median velocity of 664 km/s with an angular width of 18 degrees and the west-directed CME has the highest median velocity of 381 km/s with an angular width of 10 degrees. The latest SDO/HMI Intensitygram data shows 6 active regions (NOAA 3614, 3615, 3617, 3619, 3620, and 3621) and the latest BBSO H-Alpha data shows 2 H-Alpha plages (NOAA 3622 and 3623). STEREO/EUVI observation shows 1 region due to return from 28 to 30 March from the east limb of the Solar disk.

Based on today's condition,

solar activity for 28 March 04:00 UT - 29 March 03:59 UT is predicted to be major flare.

solar activity for 29 March 04:00 UT - 30 March 03:59 UT is predicted to be active.

solar activity for 30 March 04:00 UT - 31 March 03:59 UT is predicted to be active.

solar activity for 31 March 04:00 UT - 1 April 03:59 UT is predicted to be active.

Geomagnetic Activity

The geomagnetic activity was on active level for the last 24 hours.

The solar wind speed decreased from 554 km/s to 409 km/s, north-south component of interplanetary magnetic field stable around 0.5 nT Coronal holes at south-east and north-west were not geoeffective. CME on 27 March 2024 at 10:12 UT mainly erupted toward west with speed of 381 km/s and angular width of 10°. The CME was geoeffective and is likely to have not impact until next 4 days.

Quiet level geomagnetic activity is expected for the next 24 hours.
Quiet level geomagnetic activity is expected for 29 March 2024 07UT - 30 March 2024 07UT
Quiet level geomagnetic activity is expected for 30 March 2024 07UT - 31 March 2024 07UT
Active level geomagnetic activity is expected for 31 March 2024 07UT - 01 April 2024 07UT

Ionospheric Activity

Ionosphere was on quiet level for the last 24 hours.

There was depression of foF2 lower than 30% of its median value for 15 minutes. There was 30 minutes increment of fmin more than 30% of its median values. The Spread-F did not occur for the last 24 hours. There was  Sporadic-E occurred in the night and daytime with foEs value exceeded the foF2 for several times for 30 minutes. The S4 index values (condition of ionospheric scintillation ) was on more than 0.8 and the TEC index was at quiet level, both over Pontianak.

The ionosphere activity on March 28th, 04:00 UT - March 29th, 03:59 UT is predicted to be minor

The ionosphere activity on March 29th, 04:00 UT - March 30th, 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet

The ionosphere activity on March 30th, 04:00 UT - March 31st, 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.

The ionosphere activity on March 31st, 04:00 UT - April 1st, 03:59 UT is predicted to be minor.

 

Navigation

Based on TEC and scintillation, the error of the single-frequency GPS positioning for the last 24 hours was in slight level.

Based on ionospheric scintillation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning in March 28th, 04:00 UT March 29th, 03:59 UT is predicted at a slight level.

Based on ionospheric scintillation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning in March 29th, 04:00 UT March 30th, 03:59 UT is predicted at a normal level.

Based on ionospheric scintillation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning in March 30th, 04:00 UT March 31st, 03:59 UT is predicted at a normal level.

Based on ionospheric scintillation and TEC variation, the probability of error positioning in March 31st, 04:00 UT April 1st, 03:59 UT is predicted at a normal level.

HF Radio Communication

MUF depression was in moderate condition and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) was in minor level for the last 24 hours.

The MUF depression on March 28th, 04:00 UT - March 29th, 03:59 UT is predicted on quiet level, based on LAPAN Time Series method.

The MUF depression on March 29th, 04:00 UT - March 30th, 03:59 UT is predicted on quiet level, due to previous of geomagnetic activity.

The MUF depression on March 31th, 04:00 UT - March 31st, 03:59 UT is predicted on quiet level, due to previous of geomagnetic activity.

The MUF depression on March 31th, 04:00 UT - April 1st, 03:59 UT is predicted on minor level, due to previous of geomagnetic activity.

The SWF on March 28th, 04:00 UT - March 29th, 03:59 UT is predicted in strong level due to the prediction of solar flare.

The SWF on March 29th, 04:00 UT - March 30th, 03:59 UT is predicted in minor level due to the prediction of solar flare.

The SWF on March 30th, 04:00 UT - March 31st, 03:59 UT is predicted in minor level due to the prediction of solar flare.

The SWF on March 30th, 04:00 UT - April 1st, 03:59 UT is predicted in minor level due to the prediction of solar flare.

Satellites

The electron flux was on low level for the last 24 hours.

Low level of electron flux is expected for the next 24 hours.
Low level of electron flux is expected for 29 March 2024 07UT - 30 March 2024 07UT
Low level of electron flux is expected for 30 March 2024 07UT - 31 March 2024 07UT
Low level of electron flux is expected for 31 March 2024 07UT - 01 April 2024 07UT

The flux of high-energy protons was in event in progress for the last 24 hours.

Based on today's condition,

the flux of high-energy protons for 28 March 04:00 UT - 29 March 03:59 UT is predicted to be in event in progress.

the flux of high-energy protons for 29 March 04:00 UT - 30 March 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.

the flux of high-energy protons for 30 March 04:00 UT - 31 March 03:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.

the flux of high-energy protons for 31 March 04:00 UT - 1 April 03:59 UT is predicted to be in quiet.